Analyzing The Hitting

Mark Renda

You might recall the projections I made for the 2009 KU baseball season based on advanced stats. How are they looking, you ask? Depends on how you look at it. Some of them appear to be not even close, while others are right on the money. The big difference maker (as is always the case) is Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). A high one will inflate a hitter’s numbers, while a low one will distort them to the lower end of the spectrum. Generally, BABIP will revert close to the player’s average, but since most of these players will see less than 500 career at-bats, sample size is an obvious problem.

That all being said, BABIP is something we can look at to see what is probably going to happen as the season wears on. Since we are almost exactly halfway through the season, now is as good a time as any to take a look at a few of the team’s every day players.

Chad Lightcap – In his senior season, Lightcap is struggling to live up to the impressive numbers he put up the last three years. After notching a 1.013 and 1.050 OPS the last two seasons, respectively, he sits at .964 through 73 at-bats in 2009. The most notable area where has struggled is the strikeout department. After improving his K-rate from 17.4% in 2007 to 12.6% last season, it has ballooned to a whopping 28.8% so far this year.

Fortunately for KU fans, there is still a lot to like here. Lightcap’s walk rate has actually increased quite a bit. Despite his strikeout rate, an OPS almost 100 points lower than last season, and a huge drop in his slugging percentage, his OBP is actually not far off last year’s pace. His BABIP is a little bit higher than last season, which is actually not a good sign since he is struggling, but the K-rate appears to be the main issue. Once Lightcap begins turning his strikeouts into balls in play, he should be back to the player we’re used to seeing.

Corey Buletza – The Golden Bears’ leadoff hitter and centerfielder has been outstanding so far in 2009, showing a lot of improvement in his sophomore campaign. His OBP is up about 40 points to .383 and his OPS has jumped from .699 to .849. His strikeout rate is down about 8% to 10.2%, but is being mostly offset by a decline in walk rate. Buletza has walked just 4 times so far this year, a decline of over 3%.

His projections originally came in expecting him to be better than he was last year, but were worse than what he is actually putting up. This is mostly due to his .380 BABIP, which is well above the .338 mark he saw last season. I suspect that he won’t maintain the .380 BABIP and his numbers will drop slightly by the end of the season. That said, even with a slight decline, he will still be a more than capable leadoff hitter.

James Quigley – The team’s top option at designated hitter has put my projections to shame by maintaining an impressive BABIP. After putting up a .408 mark in 2008, he is up to .419 this season, albeit in just 52 at-bats. It is hard to imagine that staying above .400 for much longer, but a figure more in the .380 range seems possible. Thanks to the improved BABIP, his OBP and SLG are both well beyond where they were last season despite a slightly higher K-rate and a worse walk rate.
Expect a dip in BABIP, but not enough to really hurt Quigley’s production. He has proven to be a valuable commodity in the middle of the Kutztown order.

Brett Wigder/Mark Renda – The Wigder/Renda platoon at shortstop may not appear to be very productive on paper, but it’s not hard to see why either is struggling at the plate.

Wigder has seen a drop in BABIP from .333 last season to .235 this year. After being on base over 42% of the time last year, his OBP is down to .276 in 2009. Poor plate discipline appears to be the culprit here as his walk rate is down to 5.3% from 17.3% last season. On the plus side, his strikeout rate is down almost 10%. Wigder’s BABIP will likely improve down the stretch and his numbers should only improve.

Renda has also seen a drop in batting average this year, but has actually been more productive than in 2008. He is a prime example of why batting average is not a very good statistic to use in evaluating players. His OBP is up a ton to .391, his SLG is up to .378, and all this comes despite a bit of a BABIP decrease. Renda’s walk rate is up 5% and his K-rate has increased only slightly. Basically, Renda is turning singles from last season into walks and extra base hits this season. The fact that he is playing better than last year despite a lower BABIP means only good things are coming for him down the stretch.

Jared Frey – Frey, the team’s first baseman and cleanup hitter, has, as expected, seen somewhat of a balancing act by his BABIP. If you recall from the season preview, his BABIP was .406 in 2007, but dropped all the way down to .271 last year. This season, it sits at .299, which is still lower than where I think it will be by the end of the year.

His OBP is up a ton from last season thanks to an improved walk rate and the aforementioned better luck on balls hit in play. Frey appears right on track with my pre-season projection and should only get better as the year goes on.

Jeff Kistle/Mike Dugan – Like the first platoon we discussed, the Kistle/Dugan duo in right field has not blown the socks off of anybody this year. However, one half of this platoon has been way better than the other.

Kistle has seen a monstrous turn around in the BABIP department, as it is all the way up to .371 this year. However, his stats have not really mirrored that improvement as expected. His OBP is up slightly, but his slugging percentage is actually down to .321. We know Kistle needed to improve his strikeout rate and he has actually been a lot worse in his second season. As if his 37.5% strikeout rate wasn’t enough, his walk rate is also down slightly. Kistle will need to find a way to put the ball in play a bit more, or he will end up on the short end of the platoon.

Dugan has seen his production improve after a very impressive job in 149 plate appearances as a freshman. A lower strikeout rate and better walk rate appears to be the main reasons for his improvement. Dugan is one of the few to have maintained his BABIP from last season. However, despite only a .005 jump in that department, his numbers have increased more significantly than expected thanks to the improved K/BB figures. His OBP is up to .444 from .396 and his slugging is up over 20 points to .411. His .855 OPS is equivalent to the team average and, more importantly in terms of playing time, is light years ahead of Kistle.

Matt Kulbacki – Like Frey, Kulbacki was a victim of the “roaming-BABIP” his first two seasons at KU. Unlike Frey, his BABIP is actually even further off the map this season. After hitting .366 with a .419 BABIP in 2007, his average dropped to .276 with a .267 BABIP last year. This season the average is up to .377 thanks to a ridiculous .462 BABIP. Despite a lower walk rate and almost doubling his K-rate from the last 2 seasons, Kulbacki’s OPS is 1.026 this season as compared to .860 last year.

Obviously, KU’s top catcher is tearing the cover off the ball, but there is no way this keeps up. His homeruns are actually down from last year, and, as mentioned, he is not walking as much and is striking out way too much. His 3.25 K/BB ratio is second worst on the team behind only Kistle. Kulbacki is a great power hitter and will produce, but not at his current pace.

Mike Kacelowicz – After putting up a BABIP of .340 in 2007 and a .339 mark in 2008, predicting his numbers seemed pretty simple for 2009. Yeah, right. The team’s two-hitter and second baseman sports a .400 BABIP so far and has blown away his numbers from the last two years. Despite also seeing an increase in K-rate, he is one of the few Golden Bears to actually improve in the walks department. His OPS is up over 100 points to .940 and he’s been on base 46.3% of the time. He also has 8 steals, and in the irrelevant stats department, he is already closing in on his career highs in runs and RBIs.

Shayne Houck – Well this should be fun. I have no historical statistics to compare the club’s freshman third baseman to, so I’m flying blind on this one. Houck has been the team’s MVP at the plate so far this year, hitting a ridiculous .430, while clubbing 4 homers. His 1.235 OPS leads the team and his .538 OBP is outstanding.

If you read this entire article, you probably know where I’m going next: BABIP. His .465 mark is tops on the team and is all but unsustainable. Put it this way, since 1995, the highest BABIP among Kutztown players with at least 120 at-bats is .455 by Rob Ferry back in ’95.

That all being said, Houck is obviously an excellent hitter who will continue to produce. His K/BB ratio is one of the best on the team, he is hitting the long ball, and he is getting on base in several different ways. Houck appears to have one heck of a future ahead of him.

That will do it for now. Hopefully that is a good recap of the first half of the season and a good preview of the second half. I’ll get a similar analysis of pitching up as soon as I have some time.

Spring Fun

I'm not promising anything for softball and baseball season this year, but I will occasionally work up some updates and analysis.

Good luck to the Golden Bears!

Dream Season Comes To An End

The greatest season in Kutztown University men's basketball history has come to a close. The Golden Bears advanced as far the Sweet 16, but fell on Tuesday night in the Atlantic Regional Championship to top-seeded Gannon by a score of 84-73.

David Ben, in his final game as a Golden Bear, became the first KU men's basketball player to reach the 2,000 point mark in his career.

Kutztown concludes the season with an overall record of 28-5, with 3 of the 5 losses coming at the hands of Gannon. Tuesday was the final game for seniors Dave Ben, Andre Woodlin, and Mark Bower.

Men's team upends IUP

The KU men's basketball team beat seventh-seeded Indiana University of Pennsylvania 92-86
on Sunday evening and will now advance to the Atlantic Regional Championship against top-seeded Gannon, who barely snuck by fifth-seeded Alderson-Broaddus in the semi-finals. That game will be Tuesday at 7 p.m. The Golden Bears, the three seed in the tournament, are now just one win away from the Division-II Elite 8. Kutztown is 0-2 against Gannon so far this season.

KU Men Win Regional Opener

The men's basketball team defeated West Virginia State 99-88 on Saturday afternoon in the first session of the Atlantic Regional Tournament. The Golden Bears now advance to a second round showdown against seventh-seeded Indiana (Pa.). That game will be held tomorrow at 5 p.m.

March Madness in Kutztown

It's official! The Kutztown University men's basketball team is headed to the NCAA Division II Tournament. The Golden Bears, ranked 21st in the nation, will be the three seed in the Atlantic Region and will open the tournament against six-seed West Virginia State (24-5) on Saturday at noon. The Atlantic Region Tournament will be held at top-seeded Gannon, the same place KU was defeated on Saturday for the PSAC championship.

There will be seven other regional tournaments going on while the Golden Bears are in action this weekend. The eight regional champions will advance to the Elite 8, which will be held in Springfield, Mass. from March 25-28.

See the entire field of 64 here.

Gannon beats KU, wins PSAC Title

The men's basketball team fell to Gannon in Saturday's PSAC Championship by a score of 80-65. The Golden Bears fall to 26-4, with half of their losses coming at the hands of Gannon. Despite the loss, Kutztown's season is not over as they will likely be chosen to compete in the Regional Tournament, which will be held from March 14-17.

Steph Denlinger: Home Run Queen

As of Saturday March 6, 2009, no Division II softball player has hit more homeruns in her career than Kutztown's own Steph Denlinger. She has now hit 62 long balls in her career and still has over half of her senior season to add to her mark. Congratulations, Steph!

Golden Bears Headed To Title Game

The men's basketball team beat Slippery Rock 103-90 in one of two semi-final games played at Gannon University on Friday night. In the other semi-final contest, Gannon beat Cheyney 69-50, which means 21st-ranked Kutztown will need to beat the team ranked sixth in Division-II if they hope to win the PSAC Championship. In a meeting back on Jan. 3, Gannon beat the Golden Bears 88-58.

Tomorrow's PSAC Title game is set for 7 p.m.

Final 2008-09 Game Scores

Here are the final 2008-09 Hollinger Game Score's for the women's basketball team:

1. McQuade 15.3
2. Wisemiller 11.2
3. Schroeder 8.1
4. Dellegrotti 5.3
5. Starr 5.3
6. Dovey 3.3
7. Melvin 2.5
8. Bonnano 2.0
9. Mertz 1.4
10. LeVan 0.4
11. Greaves -0.3

As I get time over the next few days and weeks, I will do more analysis of this past season and take a look at next year's roster, which should be one of the PSAC's best.

Playoff Update

Both KU basketball teams competed in the first round of the PSAC Playoffs on Tuesday night.

The 3rd-ranked ladies were in Millersville to take on the 2nd-ranked Marauders. Despite keeping the game close throughout the night, the Golden Bears were eliminated by a score of 75-64. With the loss, Kutztown concludes the 2008-09 season with an overall record of 20-8.

In men's action, the top-seeded Golden Bears took care of business against 4th-ranked Mansfield by a score of 97-86. Kutztown will now head to Gannon University for the Final Four. The Golden Bears will take on Slippery Rock on Friday night with the PSAC title game set for Saturday.