A look ahead: 2009 Baseball

What I’ve posted here is a look ahead to the 2009 baseball season. You’ll see a projected starting lineup and pitching rotation, as well as, a look at the returning bench and the incoming freshmen. Each returning player will include a brief capsule and/or analysis and 2009 projections. Keep in mind, I have at my disposal a limited amount of statistics and a relatively small sample size to use in making projections. I also cannot predict player progression, so it’s likely that some of last year’s freshmen will improve this offseason. With that said, all projections are based solely on each player’s KU career through 2008.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B – Jared Frey – Jr – Frey will return as the team’s everyday firstbaseman and will look to improve on an inconsistent season that ended with a .246 batting average. The junior managed just a .662 OPS, which is not acceptable, since he will likely hit in the top half of the Kutztown order. His struggles in 2007 can be blamed on a .271 BABIP, which was well below the .344 PSAC average. Frey is not much of a power threat, having yet to homer in 184 collegiate at-bats.

What to expect: Frey will likely get about 150 at-bats in 2008. Expect a dramatic increase in batting average to somewhere around .290 since his BABIP is unlikely to remain so low. A better OPS will come with the improved batting average and I expect that to be in the .741 range. (Projection: .288/.356/.385)

2B – Mike Kacelowicz – Jr – Kacelowicz began 2008 at shortstop, but returned to his 2007 secondbase position midway through the season and will likely return there next year. In his second season with KU, Kacelowicz led off most of the team’s games, hit .305, and managed an average .391 on base percentage.

What to expect: Kacelowicz is likely to return to the tablesetting role in 2009. His career .339 BABIP and .302 batting average have stayed consistent and are right near the league averages, which means his numbers from 2008 are likely to repeat next year. His improved K/BB ratio indicates he will only be on base more in 2009. (Projection: .303/.409/.424)

SS – Mark Renda – So – Renda finished up his rookie campaign getting a majority of the starting time at shortstop and is a strong candidate to get the starting nod in 2009. He stole a team-high 17 bases last year and will be relied on to do the same in his sophomore season.

What to expect: His .279 BABIP indicates he was extremely unlucky at the plate and so an improved batting average is a sure bet. (Projection: .313/.388/.370)

3B – James Quigley – So – Quigley missed the early portion of his freshman season due to an injury, but contributed as the cleanup hitter immediately upon his arrival. Despite missing several games, he still managed 140 plate appearances, recording a .345 average and an impressive .930 OPS. He managed just one homer, but showed gap power with 14 doubles. Quigley will likely see a majority of his playing time at third, but likely will see plenty of at-bats as the DH.

What to expect: As good as Quigley played, his numbers were heavily inflated by a .408 BABIP, which is all but unsustainable. He is likely to improve with one year of experience under his belt, but expect to see some statistical regression once his BABIP decreases closer to the .344 PSAC average. (Projection: .306/.410/.449)

LF – Chad Lightcap – Sr – [Pictured] Lightcap will enter his senior season as one of the top hitters in the PSAC. He is fresh off a six homerun season in which he hit .366 and notched an ridiculous 1.050 OPS. He also stole seven bases and was responsible for creating a team-best 48 runs. Lightcap saw a dramatic drop in BABIP from his sophomore to junior campaign (.433-to-.387), but only saw a 10 point drop in batting average and actually raised his OPS. The most striking improvement in Lightcap’s 2008 game was a much better strikeout/walk ratio. Following a combined 47 strikeouts to 31 walks during his first two years, Lightcap struck out just 22 times and drew 27 walks in 2008. Lightcap will continue his role as a left fielder and designated player in 2009. It is unclear whether he will hit leadoff (as he did much of the 2008 playoffs) or if he will return to his spot in the heart of the order.

What to expect: There is no doubting Lightcap’s ability with the bat and his statistical consistency the last three seasons leads me to believe that his 2009 numbers will mirror his career averages. His .394 career BABIP in 532 at-bats suggests he will continue to blow away the league average, but he is more likely to see at least a slight decrease once again during his senior season. (Projection: .345/.442/.545)

CF – Corey Buletza – So – This is mostly me speculating, but Buletza’s speed and ability to play all three outfield positions seems to make him a strong candidate to see a majority of the starts in center in 2009. Buletza stole 15 bases in his rookie season and managed a .284 batting average. He didn’t show much power, but has the speed to pull a triple out of the bag at any time. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a shot to lead off in front of Kacelowicz and Lightcap.

What to expect: His BABIP was right around league average so his .284 average isn’t likely to change. He did strikeout 28 times, while managing to draw just 13 walks. An improvement in that department would lead to a better on base percentage, which could lead to more steal opportunities, and inevitably more runs. (Projection: .286/.342/.360)

RF – Jeff Kistle – So – Kistle was one of the few Golden Bears whose numbers were lower than his play may have indicated thanks in part to a very low .284 BABIP. In his freshman campaign, he proved to be a free swinger, with most of his at-bats ending with either a double or a strikeout. His 31 strikeouts were most among returning players and 42-percent (10-of-24) of his hits went for two bases. Kistle will likely return to his role as the starting rightfielder.

What to expect: Kistle’s BABIP can only improve, which means his numbers should be much better across the board. If Kistle can also straighten out his K/BB ratio, he could see the biggest improvement in the statbook of anyone on the roster. (Projection: .258/.333/.374)

CA – Matt Kulbacki – Jr – Kulbacki will likely see even more of the catching workload next season due to the departure of 2008 backup Scott Kacelowicz. Kulbacki was one of the team’s main power threats last year, knocking in 32 runs and smoking seven homers. He will be a strong candidate to hit fourth or fifth in the lineup. Kulbacki is an excellent example of how BABIP can distort a player’s statistics. His .419 BABIP in 2007, which to no one’s surprise produced a .366 batting average, was clearly unsustainable and it saw a huge drop last year. Kulbacki went from extremely lucky in 2007 to almost the polar opposite in 2008, suffering through a .267 BABIP, which landed him a .276 batting average. If you average his first two seasons together, you get a better indicator of what he can do with the bat.

What to expect: Barring another crazy BABIP fluctuation, Kulbacki will likely hit around .320 and should be near the team leaders in homers and slugging. As long as he isn’t worn down from a bigger catching load, Kulbacki should improve on his sophomore year production. (Projection: .326/.424/.478)

Returning to the Bench:

1B – Andy May – So – Will see some time at first. (Projection: .317/.423/.428)

2B/SS – Brett Wigder – So – Should see a significant amount of playing time in the middle infield. (Projection: .294/.428/.305)

1B/3B – Mike Dugan – So – Will see playing time at the corners and at designated player. (Projection: .277/.385/.374)

CA – Dom Fantanarosa – Sr – The only returning catcher besides Kulbacki will battle for time with freshman Knee. (Projection: .302/.387/.395)

OF – Nole Saylor – So – Will see plenty of starts in the outfield. (Projection: .289/.375/.397) *UPDATE: Saylor will not be back for the 2009 season. (8/20/09)*

Projected Starting Pitchers:

[FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) is part of what I use to analyze each of the pitcher’s statistics. Unfortunately, FIP isn’t a perfect indicator of relief pitchers and so the projections could suffer for guys moving from the bullpen to the rotation. I’ll do my best to address this issue in all projections.]

LHP – Darin Gorski – Jr – [Pictured] Although Phil Rummel was the veteran of the group, the case could be made that Gorski was the team’s ace in 2008. With Rummel now in the Houston Astros organization, there is no doubt that Gorski is coach Blum’s number one option on the hill. In two seasons at KU, Gorski sports a combined 12-4 record and a 2.50 ERA.

What to expect: Experts say that BABIP is an uncontrollable stat for pitchers, but Kutztown pitching has been well below the PSAC average for years (a good thing). Gorski is one of the main culprits of this, managing a career .264 BABIP (compared to the PSAC average .337 and team average of .308). In my research, it appears that, at the Division II level, great pitchers can keep their opponents BABIP lower than the league average and thus can manage numbers that would be Cy Young material at the major league level. With all that said, I expect Gorski’s BABIP and 69% LOB% to regress at least slightly in 2009. His K/9 and GB/FB ratios were better in his sophomore season, which are both signs of good things to come. (Projection: 3.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.7 K/9)

RHP – Mike Bucklin – Jr – Bucklin enters the 2009 season with a chance to become a regular in the KU rotation. In his sophomore season, Bucklin saw a dramatic dip from 9.8 to 5.2 in the K/9 department, which could be worrisome. With that said, he did cut down his flyballs dramatically, which is certainly a good thing. Maintaining his career 7.2 K/9, along with a an improvement to his career 1.49 WHIP will be important if Bucklin hopes to succeed in the rotation.

What to expect: Assuming his K rate hangs in there at his career average and he continues to get ground balls, Bucklin should be effective. A better walk rate would do wonders for his numbers. (Projection: 4.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

RHP - Trent Mertz – So – Mertz will enter his sophomore season fresh off a season in which he managed a team-best 1.80 ERA out of the bullpen. He could be called on to start in 2009 and will be looking to improve is K/rate. Mertz was a bit lucky, sporting a .282 BABIP and a LOB% of 76%.

What to expect: Assuming his LOB% and BABIP regress at least slightly, Mertz will see a spike in ERA in 2009. Based on the numbers from his rookie year, I still expect him to be effective, but more strikeouts couldn’t hurt. (Projection: 2.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

RHP – Jason Herr – So – Herr worked primarily out of the bullpen in his freshman campaign, but could compete for a job in the starting rotation in 2009. His 3.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP were assisted by a low .255 BABIP and a ridiculously low 56% LOB%. With that said, he did manage a good 7.9 K/9 and drew a decent amount of ground balls.

What to expect: Like the other sophomores-to-be, I expect Herr to improve across the board in his second season. (Projection: 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.9 K/9)

LHP – Ryan Cassidy – Jr – Cassidy was used as a reliever in his first two seasons, but could get a starting nod in 2009. The junior southpaw is a great example of how a fluctuating BABIP and LOB% can affect a pitcher’s statistics. In his rookie campaign, Cassidy sported an impressive 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. When you look deeper, you see a LOB% of 85% and just a .229 BABIP. Now, move forward a year to his second season in 2008. Cassidy’s ERA ballooned to .379 and his WHIP jumped to 1.42. So, he was worse last year, right? Not exactly. His LOB% took a dip to 69%, which is still a little high, and his BABIP skyrocketed to near the PSAC average at .329. Still, his K-rate was almost identical to that of his rookie season and he also drew more ground balls in his second season. His walk rate did go up slightly last season, but is that to blame for the ERA and WHIP increases? Not really. This is a case where luck seems to be the culprit.

What to expect: Now with 46 career innings of record, Cassidy’s numbers are evening out. He appears to have a lot of potential with a team-best 2:1 GO:FO rate last year and an average of just over 7 K/9. (Projection: 3.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

Returning to the pitching staff:

RHP - Anthony Fegely – So – Needs to work out control issues after 11.6 BB/9 and 2 HBP in 9.1 innings last year. (Projection: 4.89 ERA, 2.16 WHIP*, 8.7 K/9) *2.16 WHIP should drop dramatically if he corrects walk problem.

LHP - Jordan Smith – So – If Cassidy starts, Smith will be top returning lefty in the pen. (Projection: 4.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.5 K/9)

RHP - Steve Craig – Sr - Struggled in six starts last season, but is the only senior pitcher on the roster. Career 6.87 ERA and 2.06 WHIP are no fluke and very indicative of control issues. (Projection: 6.08 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 7.0 K/9)

RHP – Kevin Morganti – Jr - Hasn’t pitched since 2006 due to injury and was less than impressive before going down. (Projection: 4.73 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 4.2 K/9)

RHP - Mike Moran – So – Was effective in just under 17 innings of relief work in his first season. (Projection: 3.71 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.2 K/9)

Incoming freshmen:

Shayne Houck (IF) – [Pictured – www.baseball.legion.org] Was a standout pitcher and corner infielder at Boyertown.
Matt Frei (OF/RHP) – Expected to see time on the hill and in the field if he can.
Johann Knee (UT) – 5’10” 175 pound righty can catch and play either corner infield spot. More Info
Cody Montz (IF) – All-state second baseman for Schuylkill Haven HS
Matt Patteson (RHP) – Righty was the ace at Cedar Crest HS
Jacob Shnee (RHP) – Pitcher at Pleasant Valley HS

Departures:

P - Phil Rummel (Senior)
P - Justin Jachowicz (Senior)
P/CF - Garrison Rausch (Senior)
P - Derick Reis (Senior)
C - Scott Kacelowicz (Transfer - Bloomsburg)
OF - Bryan Riggins (Senior)

Key:
OPS = OBP+SLG
LOB% = Left on base percentage
BABIP = Batting Avg. on Balls In Play
(.###,.###,.###) = (BA, OBP, SLG)

Special thanks to Josh Leiboff for providing me with the extra statistical information I requested.