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Thursday, January 31, 2008

Profile: Rachel Weidensaul

Vitals:
Player: Weidensaul, Rachel
Height: 6’0”
Number: 15
Class: Senior
Hometown: Ashland
High School: Cardinal Brennan
Major: Marketing
Position: Guard
Depth Chart: Starter

Stats: She entered her senior season with career numbers equaling 665 points, 267 rebounds, 90 steals, and 157 assists. She is just over 100 points away from 1,000 in her career. In 2007-08, she leads the team in scoring, averaging 11.6 PPG. She is third on the team in rebounding and is shooting 42.6% from the field, including 42.1% from beyond the arc.

Breakdown: Weidensaul has seen significant minutes since her arrival at KU. Following a freshman season in which she started 23 games and averaged just under 29 minutes of work a game, she started just 12 combined games and saw her minutes drop dramatically during her sophomore and junior seasons. However, in her senior season Coach Malouf has handed her the reigns of the team and she has been one of the top players in the PSAC East.

Strengths: Weidensaul is an outstanding shooter and always a threat from beyond the arc. Her trademark shot is the jumper from anywhere along the free throw line, but she is never afraid to take a midrange jumper from anywhere inside the arc. In particular, she often will take aim from the baseline about 15 feet away from the net.

She has decent speed and can always been called upon to bring the ball up the court. On the defensive end, she often can cause problems for the opposing offense, particularly by knocking balls away with her long reach. A two-sport athlete for much of her KU tenure, Weidensaul has shown plenty of endurance and never appears fatigued.

Weaknesses: She had 285 turnovers in her first 3 years on the Golden Bears, mostly due to traveling calls. A tall, skinny guard who loves to work the perimeter, Weidensaul would often get called for a borderline travel when performing a quick crossover move on defenders. She has significantly cut back on the travels her senior season, but still has 61 turnovers to her name. Weidensaul has a tendency to force shots from tough angles and in traffic even when struggling from the field.

Impact: Weidensaul is the best player on the KU roster in her senior season and her production will be tough to replace upon her graduation. In the meantime, she will be counted on to lead the Golden Bears back to the PSAC playoffs. If Weidensaul struggles to perform, KU is going to have a hard time scoring enough points to win games.

Clay Rating System determines top 10 women since 2003

I plugged the women's basketball statistics from the last 5 years (including this season as of 1/31/08) into my player rating formula in order to determine the best 10 single season performances. Only ladies who played significant minutes are included. Enjoy.

1. Danielle Warntz (2003-04) 44.3
2. Rachel Weidensaul (2007-08) 44.0
3. Amanda Zinobile (2003-04) 40.3
4. Melissa McQuade (2007-08) 37.7
5. Lara Dellegrotti (2005-06) 36.6
6. Monique Boykins (2005-06) 34.8
7. Mercedes Van Wagner (2004-05) 34.8
8. Trish Dudeck (2005-06) 34.2
9. Trish McElmoyle (2005-06) 33.7
10. Jessica Brady (2004-05) 33.5

Men's team downed by DoC

Boxscore

Kutztown 79
Dist. of Columbia 81

The KU men's basketball team erased a 15 point second half deficit at District of Columbia last night, but fell 81-79 in overtime.

Dave Ben led all scorers with 23 points in the non-conference affair. The loss drops KU to 12-6 overall season, but does not affect their 4-0 PSAC East-leading record.

Ryan Washington had a double-double for the Golden Bears, scoring 19 points and grabbing 13 boards. Steve Coffey added 10 points off the bench, while Jeremy Coombs added 9.

KU leading scorer Stephen Dennis missed his second straight game, but will look to be back in action on Saturday when KU welcomes Cheyney [11-6 (4-1)] to Keystone Hall. The game matches the top 2 teams in the PSAC East.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

No surprises in Clay Rating System for men's team

Using the same complicated method (more in depth breakdown will come with time) I explained earlier today in the women's article, I plugged the stats from this season's men's team into my player rating formula. You'll notice there were no real surprises, with the big 3 (Dennis/Ben/Woodlin) taking the top 3 spots.

Dennis is the clear number one, but Ben and Woodlin are separated by just 0.3 points. Washington, Coombs, and Edwards are also very tight, which is accurate as their impact on the game has been similar (in a good way).

1. Dennis 53.7
2. Ben 37.5
3. Woodlin 37.2
4. McKeon 36.9*
5. Washington 33.3
6. Coombs 32.5
7. Edwards 31.9
8. Foye 28.7**
9. Nemetz 25.4
10. Coffey 23.0
11. Connolly 18.7
12. Bower 18.3
13. Hafera 14.3
14. Lewis 4.9

*No longer with team (personal reasons)
**Out for season (academics)

Wait…Cheyney beat who?

What: Women’s Basketball Action: Cheyney Wolves vs. Kutztown Golden Bears
When: Saturday February 2, 2008
Where: Kutztown’s Keystone Hall

The Cheyney Lady Wolves are in town this weekend. Typically that means and easy win for Kutztown, but that is far from the case in 2008.

Despite a 1-9 start to what seemed like the same old dismal season, the Wolves have now won four of eight games and are sitting at 2-3 in the division, one-half game behind KU for the fourth and final PSAC playoff spot. One of their two wins was over perennial Eastern conference powerhouse West Chester, who was fresh off a 68-56 shellacking of KU. On Wednesday they fell to division-leading Millersville by just 5 points.

The win over WCU proves that Cheyney is for real this year and will be no pushover for the Golden Bears. This, of course, is despite the fact that KU has beat them 29 straight times. KU won last seasons matchups by scores of 73-64 and 64-53.

Cheyney is led by senior guard Danielle Jones and sophomore forward Stephanie ‘is this safe to say on the air’ Orgi. Jones leads the team in scoring with 10.1 PPG and is an 85% free throw shooter. Orji is the inside presence for the Wolves, averaging 7.7 PPG, while leading the team in steals (50), and blocks (20).

Other likely starters for Cheyney include senior forward Lillian Penn (7.8 PPG), sophomore forward Angel Stephens (47.3 FG%, 7.6 RPG), and senior guard Ashley Blake (36 assists).

Cheyney has won games by making strides in the paint. The Wolves lead the PSAC in conference play in steals and offensive rebounding. KU will need to counter with a big day from senior center Mercedes Van Wagner if they hope to make it 30 straight wins.

Van Wagner has been inconsistent this season, but is generally a forced to be reckoned with when divisional play kicks off. With that said, following back-to-back double doubles against Mansfield and West Chester, she has been held to 3-of-14 shooting for a total of 10 points and 7 rebounds in the last two games. Without a bounce back by Van Wagner, KU will have issues in the paint.

KU will lean heavily on senior guard Rachel Weidnesaul. She has been on a tear as of late, scoring at least 20 points in three straight games. She currently leads the PSAC East in inter-divisional play scoring.

Joining Van Wagner on the list of players who need a big rebound game is freshman forward Melissa McQuade. The rookie has had her share of consistency issues, but when she is in the zone, she is hard to stop. Following 4 straight double-digit scoring days, McQuade has stumbled to a combined 11 points over the last 3 games.

Freshman guard Meredith Starr and junior guard Lara Dellegrotti will fill out KU’s starting lineup. Starr has done a respectable job handling the ball and filling the role of an assist-happy point guard. Dellegrotti has had another injury-plagued season, but can light up the scoreboard when she gets opportunities to shoot.

Key off the bench will be playmaker Vivian Melvin and consistent contributor Rachel Wisemiller. Coach Janet Malouf will also look to either Claire Sitarz or Molly Brown to relieve Van Wagner at center, while Katie Dovey and Lisi Reyna could also see some work at small/power forward.

In summary, KU will need to be sharp, especially early on, against a rejuvenated and confident Cheyney team. A loss here could be devastating to the Lady Bears playoff chances, where as a win would push them to 3-2 and into the driver’s seat for a chance to play in March.

Prediction:

Kutztown is coming off a solid win against a poor Bloomsburg team and will come out sharp, frustrating a confident, but less talented Cheyney team. KU’s stifling defense will force too many poor shots by the Wolves and KU will sneak away with a 7 point win.

Kutztown 61, Cheyney 54.

Sitarz, Dovey shine in Clay Rating System

I’ve been developing my own rating system for basketball players and I’ve spent quite a bit of time applying it to the KU women’s teams from the last few years. It does rival the Hollinger Player Index, but my formula takes a few more things into consideration. Unfortunately for me, stats like plus/minus are not available for division II basketball, so my progress will be limited.

With that said, I’ve developed a formula that focuses on per-minute production. The big pro to such a method is that it places players who play significant minutes on an even playing field with those who play in limited action. The obvious con here, however, is that a player who comes out and grabs 3 boards and scores 6 points in 5 minutes of mop up work will have a significantly inflated score. The only cure for that is to manually weed out the players who rarely play in key situations. If you’ve seen a few games, this is easy to do.

Here are the ratings for the 2007-08 Lady Bears as of January 30, 2008.

  1. Weidensaul 33.3
  2. Sitarz 30.3
  3. McQuade 29.6
  4. Van Wagner 26.3
  5. Dovey 26.0
  6. Wisemiller 22.7
  7. Dellegrotti 19.6
  8. Melvin 16.2
  9. Schroeder 14.6
  10. Reyna 14.0
  11. Starr 12.0
  12. Brown 7.8
  13. Percich 5.1
  14. Petriello -9.9

The only two players I would consider to have inflated ratings would be Schroeder and Petriello. Schroeder has seen little action and Petriello is no longer on the team.

If you’ve seen a few games, you are probably not surprised to see names like Weidensaul and McQuade at the top of this list. However, names such as Sitarz (pictured)and Dovey might be shocking. Neither of them sees significant action, but both make quite an impact when they do. Sitarz has scored, rebounded, and caused problems for opposing offenses in the lane. Dovey might be the most fearless player on the KU roster and is an absolute machine on the boards.

So, now you’re probably thinking: Are you saying Sitarz should be seeing more minutes than everyone except Weidensaul? Not necessarily. As coach Malouf was quick to point out when we discussed this type of formula, it fails to take into consideration intangibles such as hustle, discipline, consistency, awareness, etc. Sure the production is there, but this formula is not perfect. Watching a team practice or play a game every day might be enough to evaluate talent for some. This rating system is meant to be used as a tool to help support what you might already know and maybe bring to light something you may have been missing.

What does the formula mean to me? Well, the reason I even decided to formulate it was because I noticed the impact Sitarz and Dovey were making despite limited work. In my opinion, both need to see more action. Van Wagner and McQuade block them from significant minutes, but it can’t hurt to give them extra rest when you have playmakers riding the bench.

As you might imagine, there will be plenty more on this topic later. Comment below.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Dennis, men’s hoops team opening eyes in PSAC

The men’s basketball team might be the best in the entire PSAC.

That’s right, KU students—the basketball team is really a contender this year. Get off your lazy asses and get to a game over the next few weeks before it’s too late. This group might be the best ever at this university.

Looking for a specific game to get to? Try Cheyney on Saturday.

One season ago, Cheyney was responsible for knocking off KU in the first round of playoffs right here at Keystone Hall. Led by superstars Dave Ben, Steve Dennis, and Sean McKeon, Kutztown was making their first legitimate run at a playoff victory in years. Unfortunately for them, Cheyney was the better team in 2007.

Now fast forward one year. McKeon is gone, but Dennis is arguably the best player in the conference and Dave Ben is just as good on most days. Andre Woodlin would be a go-to-shooter on several PSAC foes and Ryan Washington is becoming the frontcourt presence KU lost when McKeon hit the road. Toss in possibly the best supporting cast in the business and you have the real deal.

Following some major offseason hype, most people, including myself, were shocked to see the Golden Bears stumble out of the gates back in late November. A 1-3 start coupled with the departure of superstar center McKeon made it look like another year of disappointment for the KU faithful.

That certainly has not been the case.

Enter Stephen Dennis. The sophomore point guard and reigning PSAC East rookie of the year has taken the league by storm, notching 30 points on several occasions and carrying the Golden Bears to a 4-0 start in the PSAC East. Arguably the top player in the PSAC so far this season, Dennis does it all, near the conference leaders in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. That’s right—a point guard who blocks and gets rebounds. He is a phenomenal athlete and, at times, looks untouchable.

But, it’s not just Dennis carrying the load. David Ben is an unbelievable athlete who, when in the zone, is also a top five player in the PSAC. He can score, rebound, create turnovers, and, if you’ve seen a game, you know can he dunk. Andre Woodlin has played in the shadows of Ben and Dennis, but has played his role outstandingly and has proved just as valuable.

Little guy Nate Edwards has taken a beating, missing several games due to injury, but has been stellar when healthy, hitting three balls and making big defensive plays. Jeremy Coombs has been starting in the front court and has formed quite the dynamic duo with fellow big man Ryan Washington.

Washington, a transfer redshirt freshman, has been a pleasant surprise for KU. Since the departure of McKeon, Washington has stepped into the starting lineup and made play after play in the lane. Not only does he score almost every time he shoots, but he has excellent vision when going to the hole and has found teammates, usually Coombs, for easy buckets.

Kevin Hafera, Steve Coffey and Mike Connolly have been stellar in their roles off the bench, hitting big shots and making big plays when KU has needed them.

This team is the real deal, already manhandling reigning PSAC East champ and pre-season favorite Millersville 78-60. Toss in thrashings of Mansfield, West Chester, and Bloomsburg and what are you left with?

A rematch with Cheyney on February 2 at Keystone Hall. Be there.

Clay Player Ratings - Men's Basketball

As of 2/19/2008 - Includes only games played this season (2007-08)

Listed from left to right are the player's current rank, last week's rank, the player's name, and the player's rating.

1. (1) Stephen Dennis - 47.1
2. (2) Sean McKeon - 40.1*
3. (4) Ryan Washington - 37.0
4. (3) David Ben - 36.2
5. (5) Andre Woodlin - 35.3
6. (8) Jeremy Coombs - 34.1
7. (7) Max Foye - 29.5*
8. (6) Nate Edwards - 27.2
9. (9) Steve Coffey - 23.7
10. (11) Mark Bower - 22.7
11. (10) Mike Connolly - 15.2
12. (13) Kevin Hafera - 11.4
13. (12) Ryan Nemetz - 8.6
14. (14) Dan Lewis - 5.1*

*Inactive

Clay Player Ratings - Women's Basketball

As of 2/19/2008 - Includes only games played this season (2007-08)

Listed from left to right are the player's current rank, the player's name, and the player's rating.

1. Chauntelle Schroeder 33.5
2. Mercedes Van Wagner 31.9
3. Rachel Wisemiller 31.0
4. Rachel Weidensaul 30.6
5. Melissa McQuade 28.4
6. Katie Dovey 25.8
7. Claire Sitarz 24.1
8. Lara Dellegrotti 23.2
9. Vivian Melvin 18.4
10. Meredith Starr 14.3
11. Lisi Reyna 9.6
12. Britt Percich 8.4
13. Molly Brown 7.3
14. Laura Petriello -3.2*

*Inactive

Welcome

Welcome to the Kutztown University Vital Sports blog site. My name is Mike Clay, former Sports Editor for KU's university newspaper, The Keystone. You might recall my column '10 Vital Questions with Mike Clay' if you attended KU between 2005 and 2007.

I currently make a living as a Managerial Accountant in Kutztown and as a radio broadcaster for the KU athletic department. The purpose of this blog is to offer a more opinionated and thorough analysis of some of the major sports here at KU.

Keep in mind that this site is in its early stages, but many improvements and possibly additional columnists are expected in the near future.

Enjoy and Go Golden Bears!


Visit www.kubears.com for the latest updates on Golden Bear Athletics.

If not stated otherwise, photo credit should be given to Tony Vasquez