Are you for real?

A lot of people are asking me the same question: Is this women’s basketball team better than the teams from the last few years or is their 7-0 record simply a product of an easy schedule. While I may not have a simple answer to that question, I did some research and learned a few things. Enjoy.

First of all, here is KU’s record through seven games over the last four seasons, including this year:
2008: 7-0
2007: 2-5
2006: 5-2
2005: 4-3In 2008, the Golden Bears are 7-0 and have outscored their opponents (Slippery Rock, Pitt-Johnstown, USiP, Lincoln, Columbia Union (x2), and PSU-Berks) by an average score of 73-47. Over the last three seasons, KU has taken on teams from that group on 18 occasions and is 14-4 in those contests, outscoring them by an average score of 69-55. So, based solely on that, they are clearly better than they have been.

Here is a more detailed breakdown, which will show the team’s success against each of their to-date 2008 opponents over the last four years, including this year’s games:

Slippery Rock:
2008: Won 66-51 (+15)
2007: Won 67-60 (+7)
2006: Lost 51-63 (-12)
2005: Lost 57-58 (-1)
05-07 Average Score: 58-60 (-2)

Pitt-Johnstown:
2008: Won 86-72 (+14)
2007: DNP
2006: Lost 56-65 (-9)
2005: DNP

USiP:
2008: Won 64-52 (+12)
2007: Won 57-50 (+7)
2006: Lost 62-66 (-4)
2005: DNP
05-07 Average Score: 60-58 (+2)

Lincoln (Pa):
2008: Won 75-48 (+27)
2007: Won 79-54 (+25)
2006: Won 62-58 (+4)
2005: Won 79-53 (+26)
05-07 Average Score: 73-55 (+18)

Columbia Union:
2008: Won 72-37 (+27)
2008: Won 76-30 (+27)
2007: Won 87-72 (+15)
2007: Won 52-45 (+7)
2006: Won 78-54 (+24)
2006: Won 69-54 (+15)
2005: Won 78-59 (+19)
2005: Won 80-56 (+24)
05-07 Average Score: 80-57 (+23)

PSU-Berks:
2008: Won 74-38 (+36)
2007: Won 81-54 (+27)
2006: Won 71-34 (+37)
2005: Won 84-40 (+44)
05-07 Average Score: 79-43 (+36)

There you have it. If you’re keeping score at home, you’ll see that of their six opponents this season, they’ve widened the scoring margin compared to the average of the last three seasons against 5 of the 6 teams with the PSU-Berks margin of victory remaining the same.

This data does seem to indicate that the Golden Bears are playing better, but the teams they are playing are not only teams they usually beat, but could also conveniently be having down years. For example, Slippery Rock, who KU was 1-2 against the last three years before beating them this year, is picked to finish last in the PSAC West this season.

In conclusion, I think it is safe to say that the 2008-09 version of the KU women’s basketball is better than teams from the last couple of years. How good? That is hard to say. Once the Golden Bears get a few PSAC games under their belt, we will have a much better idea where they are going this year. Right now, it looks like they could manage a PSAC East record near 9-5, which would mean a return to the postseason.

Regardless of their schedule, they are still a perfect 7-0. You don’t get there by accident.