Mark Renda
You might recall the projections I made for the 2009 KU baseball season based on advanced stats. How are they looking, you ask? Depends on how you look at it. Some of them appear to be not even close, while others are right on the money. The big difference maker (as is always the case) is Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). A high one will inflate a hitter’s numbers, while a low one will distort them to the lower end of the spectrum. Generally, BABIP will revert close to the player’s average, but since most of these players will see less than 500 career at-bats, sample size is an obvious problem.
That all being said, BABIP is something we can look at to see what is probably going to happen as the season wears on. Since we are almost exactly halfway through the season, now is as good a time as any to take a look at a few of the team’s every day players.
Chad Lightcap – In his senior season, Lightcap is struggling to live up to the impressive numbers he put up the last three years. After notching a 1.013 and 1.050 OPS the last two seasons, respectively, he sits at .964 through 73 at-bats in 2009. The most notable area where has struggled is the strikeout department. After improving his K-rate from 17.4% in 2007 to 12.6% last season, it has ballooned to a whopping 28.8% so far this year.
Fortunately for KU fans, there is still a lot to like here. Lightcap’s walk rate has actually increased quite a bit. Despite his strikeout rate, an OPS almost 100 points lower than last season, and a huge drop in his slugging percentage, his OBP is actually not far off last year’s pace. His BABIP is a little bit higher than last season, which is actually not a good sign since he is struggling, but the K-rate appears to be the main issue. Once Lightcap begins turning his strikeouts into balls in play, he should be back to the player we’re used to seeing.
Corey Buletza – The Golden Bears’ leadoff hitter and centerfielder has been outstanding so far in 2009, showing a lot of improvement in his sophomore campaign. His OBP is up about 40 points to .383 and his OPS has jumped from .699 to .849. His strikeout rate is down about 8% to 10.2%, but is being mostly offset by a decline in walk rate. Buletza has walked just 4 times so far this year, a decline of over 3%.
His projections originally came in expecting him to be better than he was last year, but were worse than what he is actually putting up. This is mostly due to his .380 BABIP, which is well above the .338 mark he saw last season. I suspect that he won’t maintain the .380 BABIP and his numbers will drop slightly by the end of the season. That said, even with a slight decline, he will still be a more than capable leadoff hitter.
James Quigley – The team’s top option at designated hitter has put my projections to shame by maintaining an impressive BABIP. After putting up a .408 mark in 2008, he is up to .419 this season, albeit in just 52 at-bats. It is hard to imagine that staying above .400 for much longer, but a figure more in the .380 range seems possible. Thanks to the improved BABIP, his OBP and SLG are both well beyond where they were last season despite a slightly higher K-rate and a worse walk rate.
Expect a dip in BABIP, but not enough to really hurt Quigley’s production. He has proven to be a valuable commodity in the middle of the Kutztown order.
Brett Wigder/Mark Renda – The Wigder/Renda platoon at shortstop may not appear to be very productive on paper, but it’s not hard to see why either is struggling at the plate.
Wigder has seen a drop in BABIP from .333 last season to .235 this year. After being on base over 42% of the time last year, his OBP is down to .276 in 2009. Poor plate discipline appears to be the culprit here as his walk rate is down to 5.3% from 17.3% last season. On the plus side, his strikeout rate is down almost 10%. Wigder’s BABIP will likely improve down the stretch and his numbers should only improve.
Renda has also seen a drop in batting average this year, but has actually been more productive than in 2008. He is a prime example of why batting average is not a very good statistic to use in evaluating players. His OBP is up a ton to .391, his SLG is up to .378, and all this comes despite a bit of a BABIP decrease. Renda’s walk rate is up 5% and his K-rate has increased only slightly. Basically, Renda is turning singles from last season into walks and extra base hits this season. The fact that he is playing better than last year despite a lower BABIP means only good things are coming for him down the stretch.
Jared Frey – Frey, the team’s first baseman and cleanup hitter, has, as expected, seen somewhat of a balancing act by his BABIP. If you recall from the season preview, his BABIP was .406 in 2007, but dropped all the way down to .271 last year. This season, it sits at .299, which is still lower than where I think it will be by the end of the year.
His OBP is up a ton from last season thanks to an improved walk rate and the aforementioned better luck on balls hit in play. Frey appears right on track with my pre-season projection and should only get better as the year goes on.
Jeff Kistle/Mike Dugan – Like the first platoon we discussed, the Kistle/Dugan duo in right field has not blown the socks off of anybody this year. However, one half of this platoon has been way better than the other.
Kistle has seen a monstrous turn around in the BABIP department, as it is all the way up to .371 this year. However, his stats have not really mirrored that improvement as expected. His OBP is up slightly, but his slugging percentage is actually down to .321. We know Kistle needed to improve his strikeout rate and he has actually been a lot worse in his second season. As if his 37.5% strikeout rate wasn’t enough, his walk rate is also down slightly. Kistle will need to find a way to put the ball in play a bit more, or he will end up on the short end of the platoon.
Dugan has seen his production improve after a very impressive job in 149 plate appearances as a freshman. A lower strikeout rate and better walk rate appears to be the main reasons for his improvement. Dugan is one of the few to have maintained his BABIP from last season. However, despite only a .005 jump in that department, his numbers have increased more significantly than expected thanks to the improved K/BB figures. His OBP is up to .444 from .396 and his slugging is up over 20 points to .411. His .855 OPS is equivalent to the team average and, more importantly in terms of playing time, is light years ahead of Kistle.
Matt Kulbacki – Like Frey, Kulbacki was a victim of the “roaming-BABIP” his first two seasons at KU. Unlike Frey, his BABIP is actually even further off the map this season. After hitting .366 with a .419 BABIP in 2007, his average dropped to .276 with a .267 BABIP last year. This season the average is up to .377 thanks to a ridiculous .462 BABIP. Despite a lower walk rate and almost doubling his K-rate from the last 2 seasons, Kulbacki’s OPS is 1.026 this season as compared to .860 last year.
Obviously, KU’s top catcher is tearing the cover off the ball, but there is no way this keeps up. His homeruns are actually down from last year, and, as mentioned, he is not walking as much and is striking out way too much. His 3.25 K/BB ratio is second worst on the team behind only Kistle. Kulbacki is a great power hitter and will produce, but not at his current pace.
Mike Kacelowicz – After putting up a BABIP of .340 in 2007 and a .339 mark in 2008, predicting his numbers seemed pretty simple for 2009. Yeah, right. The team’s two-hitter and second baseman sports a .400 BABIP so far and has blown away his numbers from the last two years. Despite also seeing an increase in K-rate, he is one of the few Golden Bears to actually improve in the walks department. His OPS is up over 100 points to .940 and he’s been on base 46.3% of the time. He also has 8 steals, and in the irrelevant stats department, he is already closing in on his career highs in runs and RBIs.
Shayne Houck – Well this should be fun. I have no historical statistics to compare the club’s freshman third baseman to, so I’m flying blind on this one. Houck has been the team’s MVP at the plate so far this year, hitting a ridiculous .430, while clubbing 4 homers. His 1.235 OPS leads the team and his .538 OBP is outstanding.
If you read this entire article, you probably know where I’m going next: BABIP. His .465 mark is tops on the team and is all but unsustainable. Put it this way, since 1995, the highest BABIP among Kutztown players with at least 120 at-bats is .455 by Rob Ferry back in ’95.
That all being said, Houck is obviously an excellent hitter who will continue to produce. His K/BB ratio is one of the best on the team, he is hitting the long ball, and he is getting on base in several different ways. Houck appears to have one heck of a future ahead of him.
That will do it for now. Hopefully that is a good recap of the first half of the season and a good preview of the second half. I’ll get a similar analysis of pitching up as soon as I have some time.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Analyzing The Hitting
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
A look ahead: 2009 Baseball
What I’ve posted here is a look ahead to the 2009 baseball season. You’ll see a projected starting lineup and pitching rotation, as well as, a look at the returning bench and the incoming freshmen. Each returning player will include a brief capsule and/or analysis and 2009 projections. Keep in mind, I have at my disposal a limited amount of statistics and a relatively small sample size to use in making projections. I also cannot predict player progression, so it’s likely that some of last year’s freshmen will improve this offseason. With that said, all projections are based solely on each player’s KU career through 2008.
Projected Starting Lineup:
1B – Jared Frey – Jr – Frey will return as the team’s everyday firstbaseman and will look to improve on an inconsistent season that ended with a .246 batting average. The junior managed just a .662 OPS, which is not acceptable, since he will likely hit in the top half of the Kutztown order. His struggles in 2007 can be blamed on a .271 BABIP, which was well below the .344 PSAC average. Frey is not much of a power threat, having yet to homer in 184 collegiate at-bats.
What to expect: Frey will likely get about 150 at-bats in 2008. Expect a dramatic increase in batting average to somewhere around .290 since his BABIP is unlikely to remain so low. A better OPS will come with the improved batting average and I expect that to be in the .741 range. (Projection: .288/.356/.385)
2B – Mike Kacelowicz – Jr – Kacelowicz began 2008 at shortstop, but returned to his 2007 secondbase position midway through the season and will likely return there next year. In his second season with KU, Kacelowicz led off most of the team’s games, hit .305, and managed an average .391 on base percentage.
What to expect: Kacelowicz is likely to return to the tablesetting role in 2009. His career .339 BABIP and .302 batting average have stayed consistent and are right near the league averages, which means his numbers from 2008 are likely to repeat next year. His improved K/BB ratio indicates he will only be on base more in 2009. (Projection: .303/.409/.424)
SS – Mark Renda – So – Renda finished up his rookie campaign getting a majority of the starting time at shortstop and is a strong candidate to get the starting nod in 2009. He stole a team-high 17 bases last year and will be relied on to do the same in his sophomore season.
What to expect: His .279 BABIP indicates he was extremely unlucky at the plate and so an improved batting average is a sure bet. (Projection: .313/.388/.370)
3B – James Quigley – So – Quigley missed the early portion of his freshman season due to an injury, but contributed as the cleanup hitter immediately upon his arrival. Despite missing several games, he still managed 140 plate appearances, recording a .345 average and an impressive .930 OPS. He managed just one homer, but showed gap power with 14 doubles. Quigley will likely see a majority of his playing time at third, but likely will see plenty of at-bats as the DH.
What to expect: As good as Quigley played, his numbers were heavily inflated by a .408 BABIP, which is all but unsustainable. He is likely to improve with one year of experience under his belt, but expect to see some statistical regression once his BABIP decreases closer to the .344 PSAC average. (Projection: .306/.410/.449)
LF –
nd notched an ridiculous 1.050 OPS. He also stole seven bases and was responsible for creating a team-best 48 runs. Lightcap saw a dramatic drop in BABIP from his sophomore to junior campaign (.433-to-.387), but only saw a 10 point drop in batting average and actually raised his OPS. The most striking improvement in Lightcap’s 2008 game was a much better strikeout/walk ratio. Following a combined 47 strikeouts to 31 walks during his first two years, Lightcap struck out just 22 times and drew 27 walks in 2008. Lightcap will continue his role as a left fielder and designated player in 2009. It is unclear whether he will hit leadoff (as he did much of the 2008 playoffs) or if he will return to his spot in the heart of the order.
What to expect: There is no doubting Lightcap’s ability with the bat and his statistical consistency the last three seasons leads me to believe that his 2009 numbers will mirror his career averages. His .394 career BABIP in 532 at-bats suggests he will continue to blow away the league average, but he is more likely to see at least a slight decrease once again during his senior season. (Projection: .345/.442/.545)
CF – Corey Buletza – So – This is mostly me speculating, but Buletza’s speed and ability to play all three outfield positions seems to make him a strong candidate to see a majority of the starts in center in 2009. Buletza stole 15 bases in his rookie season and managed a .284 batting average. He didn’t show much power, but has the speed to pull a triple out of the bag at any time. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a shot to lead off in front of Kacelowicz and Lightcap.
What to expect: His BABIP was right around league average so his .284 average isn’t likely to change. He did strikeout 28 times, while managing to draw just 13 walks. An improvement in that department would lead to a better on base percentage, which could lead to more steal opportunities, and inevitably more runs. (Projection: .286/.342/.360)
RF – Jeff Kistle – So – Kistle was one of the few Golden Bears whose numbers were lower than his play may have indicated thanks in part to a very low .284 BABIP. In his freshman campaign, he proved to be a free swinger, with most of his at-bats ending with either a double or a strikeout. His 31 strikeouts were most among returning players and 42-percent (10-of-24) of his hits went for two bases. Kistle will likely return to his role as the starting rightfielder.
What to expect: Kistle’s BABIP can only improve, which means his numbers should be much better across the board. If Kistle can also straighten out his K/BB ratio, he could see the biggest improvement in the statbook of anyone on the roster. (Projection: .258/.333/.374)
CA – Matt Kulbacki – Jr – Kulbacki will likely see even more of the catching workload next season due to the departure of 2008 backup Scott Kacelowicz. Kulbacki was one of the team’s main power threats last year, knocking in 32 runs and smoking seven homers. He will be a strong candidate to hit fourth or fifth in the lineup. Kulbacki is an excellent example of how BABIP can distort a player’s statistics. His .419 BABIP in 2007, which to no one’s surprise produced a .366 batting average, was clearly unsustainable and it saw a huge drop last year. Kulbacki went from extremely lucky in 2007 to almost the polar opposite in 2008, suffering through a .267 BABIP, which landed him a .276 batting average. If you average his first two seasons together, you get a better indicator of what he can do with the bat.
What to expect: Barring another crazy BABIP fluctuation, Kulbacki will likely hit around .320 and should be near the team leaders in homers and slugging. As long as he isn’t worn down from a bigger catching load, Kulbacki should improve on his sophomore year production. (Projection: .326/.424/.478)
Returning to the Bench:
1B – Andy May – So – Will see some time at first. (Projection: .317/.423/.428)
2B/SS – Brett Wigder – So – Should see a significant amount of playing time in the middle infield. (Projection: .294/.428/.305)
1B/3B – Mike Dugan – So – Will see playing time at the corners and at designated player. (Projection: .277/.385/.374)
CA – Dom Fantanarosa – Sr – The only returning catcher besides Kulbacki will battle for time with freshman Knee. (Projection: .302/.387/.395)
OF – Nole Saylor – So – Will see plenty of starts in the outfield. (Projection: .289/.375/.397) *UPDATE: Saylor will not be back for the 2009 season. (8/20/09)*
Projected Starting Pitchers:
[FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) is part of what I use to analyze each of the pitcher’s statistics. Unfortunately, FIP isn’t a perfect indicator of relief pitchers and so the projections could suffer for guys moving from the bullpen to the rotation. I’ll do my best to address this issue in all projections.]
LHP – Darin Gorski – Jr – [Pictured] Although Phil Rummel was the veteran of the group, the case could be made
that Gorski was the team’s ace in 2008. With Rummel now in the Houston Astros organization, there is no doubt that Gorski is coach Blum’s number one option on the hill. In two seasons at KU, Gorski sports a combined 12-4 record and a 2.50 ERA.
What to expect: Experts say that BABIP is an uncontrollable stat for pitchers, but Kutztown pitching has been well below the PSAC average for years (a good thing). Gorski is one of the main culprits of this, managing a career .264 BABIP (compared to the PSAC average .337 and team average of .308). In my research, it appears that, at the Division II level, great pitchers can keep their opponents BABIP lower than the league average and thus can manage numbers that would be Cy Young material at the major league level. With all that said, I expect Gorski’s BABIP and 69% LOB% to regress at least slightly in 2009. His K/9 and GB/FB ratios were better in his sophomore season, which are both signs of good things to come. (Projection: 3.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.7 K/9)
RHP – Mike Bucklin – Jr – Bucklin enters the 2009 season with a chance to become a regular in the KU rotation. In his sophomore season, Bucklin saw a dramatic dip from 9.8 to 5.2 in the K/9 department, which could be worrisome. With that said, he did cut down his flyballs dramatically, which is certainly a good thing. Maintaining his career 7.2 K/9, along with a an improvement to his career 1.49 WHIP will be important if Bucklin hopes to succeed in the rotation.
What to expect: Assuming his K rate hangs in there at his career average and he continues to get ground balls, Bucklin should be effective. A better walk rate would do wonders for his numbers. (Projection: 4.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)
RHP - Trent Mertz – So – Mertz will enter his sophomore season fresh off a season in which he managed a team-best 1.80 ERA out of the bullpen. He could be called on to start in 2009 and will be looking to improve is K/rate. Mertz was a bit lucky, sporting a .282 BABIP and a LOB% of 76%.
What to expect: Assuming his LOB% and BABIP regress at least slightly, Mertz will see a spike in ERA in 2009. Based on the numbers from his rookie year, I still expect him to be effective, but more strikeouts couldn’t hurt. (Projection: 2.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)
RHP – Jason Herr – So – Herr worked primarily out of the bullpen in his freshman campaign, but could compete for a job in the starting rotation in 2009. His 3.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP were assisted by a low .255 BABIP and a ridiculously low 56% LOB%. With that said, he did manage a good 7.9 K/9 and drew a decent amount of ground balls.
What to expect: Like the other sophomores-to-be, I expect Herr to improve across the board in his second season. (Projection: 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.9 K/9)
LHP – Ryan Cassidy – Jr – Cassidy was used as a reliever in his first two seasons, but could get a starting nod in 2009. The junior southpaw is a great example of how a fluctuating BABIP and LOB% can affect a pitcher’s statistics. In his rookie campaign, Cassidy sported an impressive 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. When you look deeper, you see a LOB% of 85% and just a .229 BABIP. Now, move forward a year to his second season in 2008. Cassidy’s ERA ballooned to .379 and his WHIP jumped to 1.42. So, he was worse last year, right? Not exactly. His LOB% took a dip to 69%, which is still a little high, and his BABIP skyrocketed to near the PSAC average at .329. Still, his K-rate was almost identical to that of his rookie season and he also drew more ground balls in his second season. His walk rate did go up slightly last season, but is that to blame for the ERA and WHIP increases? Not really. This is a case where luck seems to be the culprit.
What to expect: Now with 46 career innings of record, Cassidy’s numbers are evening out. He appears to have a lot of potential with a team-best 2:1 GO:FO rate last year and an average of just over 7 K/9. (Projection: 3.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)
Returning to the pitching staff:
RHP - Anthony Fegely – So – Needs to work out control issues after 11.6 BB/9 and 2 HBP in 9.1 innings last year. (Projection: 4.89 ERA, 2.16 WHIP*, 8.7 K/9) *2.16 WHIP should drop dramatically if he corrects walk problem.
LHP - Jordan Smith – So – If Cassidy starts, Smith will be top returning lefty in the pen. (Projection: 4.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.5 K/9)
RHP - Steve Craig – Sr - Struggled in six starts last season, but is the only senior pitcher on the roster. Career 6.87 ERA and 2.06 WHIP are no fluke and very indicative of control issues. (Projection: 6.08 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 7.0 K/9)
RHP – Kevin Morganti – Jr - Hasn’t pitched since 2006 due to injury and was less than impressive before going down. (Projection: 4.73 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 4.2 K/9)
RHP - Mike Moran – So – Was effective in just under 17 innings of relief work in his first season. (Projection: 3.71 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.2 K/9)
Shayne Houck (IF) – [Pictured – www.baseball.legion.org] Was a standout pitcher and corner infielder at Boyertown.
Matt Frei (OF/RHP) – Expected to see time on the hill and in the field if he can.
Johann Knee (UT) – 5’10” 175 pound righty can catch and play either corner infield spot. More Info
Cody Montz (IF) – All-state second baseman for Schuylkill Haven HS
Matt Patteson (RHP) – Righty was the ace at Cedar Crest HS
Jacob Shnee (RHP) – Pitcher at Pleasant Valley HS
Departures:
P - Phil Rummel (Senior)
P - Justin Jachowicz (Senior)
P/CF - Garrison Rausch (Senior)
P - Derick Reis (Senior)
C - Scott Kacelowicz (Transfer - Bloomsburg)
OF - Bryan Riggins (Senior)
Key:
OPS = OBP+SLG
LOB% = Left on base percentage
BABIP = Batting Avg. on Balls In Play
(.###,.###,.###) = (BA, OBP, SLG)
Special thanks to Josh Leiboff for providing me with the extra statistical information I requested.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Baseball team looks to make noise at Regionals
What: NCAA Division II North Atlantic Regional Baseball Playoffs
When:
Where: Point Stadium on the campus of
Team Info
The KU baseball team will head into this week’s North Atlantic Regional playoffs looking to continue its Cinderella run to the Division II World Series. The Golden Bears enter the tournament with an automatic bid after shocking the entire region by winning the PSAC Championship earlier this month. The Golden Bears enter Regionals with a 30-24 record and have won 12 of their last 14 games against PSAC foes.
Kutztown will be the six seed in the tournament and its opening playoff game w
ill be against top-seeded
Six teams will contend for the Regional crown in the double elimination tournament. The other first round games will match second-seeded
The Golden Bears were a combined 7-3 against the other five playoff teams in 2008. They were 0-1 against
Last season, KU won the North Atlantic Region Championship, which qualified them for the Division II World Series, where they were eliminated in just two games.
The Golden Bears started their improbable run to the Regional playoffs back in April when they completed the regular season by taking three of four games from
Probable Starting Lineup
1. LF –
Is the team’s best hitter by a longshot and is tops on the team in batting average, RBIs, runs (47), slugging (.620), and on-base percentage (.488).
2. 2B – Mike Kacelowicz (.315-1-20)
Spent much of the season as the leadoff hitter, but has done well in the two spot.
3. 3B – Mike Dugan (.286-1-19)
Frey could end up in this spot, but Dugan has the hot bat and will likely get the nod if he continues hitting.
4. DH – James Quigley (.330-1-17)
Quigley missed a big part of the early season, but has been stellar since his return.
5. CA – Matt Kulbacki (.286-7-32)
Will split time at catcher with Scott Kacelowicz, but his bat will be relied upon for power. He leads the team with seven homers.
6. RF – Corey Buletza (.278-1-23)
Captain versatility can play all three outfield spots and has started at least one game batting in every spot in the order except ninth.
7. CF – Garrison Rausch (.193-0-13)
Rausch struggled with the bat all season long, but has been hot over the last few games and could hit anywhere from fifth through eighth.
8. 1B – Jared Frey (.250-0-20)
Frey will be at the top of the order if he starts hitting again. He was well over .300 earlier this year, before a huge late-season dropoff.
9. SS – Mark Renda (.250-0-16)
Brett Wigder is likely to share time here, but Renda seems to be getting more playing time as of late. He leads the team with 17 steals.
Bench
CA – Scott Kacelowicz (.309-0-9) – Will see time at catcher
OF – Jeff Kistle (.220-1-11) – Will get a few spot starts and pinch hit opportunities
IF – Brett Wigder (.281-0-19) – Will see time at shortstop.
1B – Andy May (.311-1-9) – Will be limited to pinch hitting unless Frey struggles badly.
OF – Nole Saylor (.281-1-7) – Could see a start in centerfield.
OF – Bryan Riggins (.222-0-9) – Unlikely to see much time, but did get a rare start in PSACs.
Probable Pitching Rotation
1. LHP Darin Gorski (8-3 2.08)
The staff ace leads KU in wins, innings pitched (73.2), and strikeouts (78) and is best among the starters in ERA and opponent batting average (.208).
2. RHP Phil Rummel (6-5 3.39)
Has been better and better as the season has gone on and is not much of a dropoff, if any, from Gorski.
3. RHP Derek Reis (4-2 2.63)
A more than formidable third option, Reis is third best on the team in ERA in 51.1 innings of work.
4. LHP Garrison Rausch (1-3 6.17)
2008 was a struggle, but the senior has come up big in important games this season and could see a start.
5. RHP Jason Herr (0-2 3.72)
Herr started the decisive final game against
6. RHP Mike Bucklin (2-0 5.40)
He got a spot start in PSACs and could be used if Coach Blum is in a bind.
Bullpen
RHP Trent Mertz (1-0 1.80) - Leads the team in ERA and has 16 strikeouts in 20 innings of relief.
RHP Justin Jachowicz (1-3 3.33) – One of Coach Blum’s go to guys in the pen.
LHP Ryan Cassidy (2-2 4.24) – A top lefty option out of the bullpen.
RHP Mike Moran (1-1 4.86) – Has recorded more strikeouts than innings pitched so far this season
RHP Anthony Fegely (1-1 2.89) – Only worked 9.1 innings in 2008.
RHP Steve Craig (2-1 7.04) – Started earlier this season, but has struggled in limited action since then.
LHP Jordan Smith (1-1 5.02) – Unlikely to see much work
Outlook
As mentioned in last week’s PSAC preview, the Golden Bears aren’t the team that everyone feared in 2007, but teams are definitely going to take them more seriously now they’ve dominated West Chester and came out as champions of the always competitive PSAC. Last years team was loaded with veteran talent, but in 2008 its young talent, which can sometimes be even scarier for opponents.
The run to a Regional title will be the team’s toughest challenge of the season, but the Golden Bears’ deep pitching staff will keep them competitive against anyone. The young offense has been red hot, but the two week layoff from PSACs could be troubling for their momentum. It will be interesting to see if they continue to swing the bats well.
The Golden Bears have had success against the top teams in the PSAC, a strong pitching conference, but the WVIAC is more of a hitting-first conference. They say pitching wins championships, so that could give KU somewhat of an edge. The Golden Bears are another strong sleeper pick in Regionals as long as the offense continues to put runs on the board.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Playoffs on line as baseball faces WCU
What: Kutztown Golden Bears @ West Chester Golden Rams
When:
Where: Serpico Stadium on the campus of
~and~
What:
When:
Where: North Campus Field on the campus of
Radio: KUR Sports at
Game Info
The KU baseball team has just four games left to find a way back to the PSAC Playoffs. The Golden Bears (8-8) currently are tied for the third and final playoff spot in the Eastern division, but it won’t be easy to hold on with division-leading
nd
The teams will meet for two games on Friday afternoon in
Meanwhile, Bloomsburg will be up against
The Golden Bears enter the game at 22-20 overall this season and are fresh off a 4-2 win against Shippensburg on Tuesday. Their most recent divisional action was last weekend when they took three-of-four from
The Golden Rams are ranked 14th in Division II and are 37-9 overall in 2008. They are coming off a 12-2 in over University of the Sciences on Thursday. There most recent PSAC East action was four-game set with Bloomsburg last weekend in which they split the four games. On Friday, the Golden Rams fell 8-3 in game one before taking game two 10-3. On Saturday, they won game one 3-2 before falling 10-7 in game two.
Last season, the teams met five times, including once during the NCAA Division II North Atlantic Regionals. KU took three of the four regular season matchups, including 8-4 and 3-2 wins at home and a 4-5 loss and 9-3 win on the road. In the playoffs, KU easily handled the Golden Rams 9-1 to win the North Atlantic Regional Tournament.
Probable Starting Lineups
Kutztown:
1. Corey Buletza – LF/RF
2. Mike Kacelowicz – 2B
3.
4. James Quigley – DH/3B
5. Jared Frey – 1B
6. Matt Kulbacki/Scott Kacelowicz – CA
7. Mike Dugan – 3B/DH
8. Garrison Rausch – CF
9. Mark Renda/Jeff Kistle/Brett Wigder – UT
SPs: Phil Rummel, Darin Gorski, Garrison Rausch, Derek Reis
1. Nick Spisak – SS
2. Frank Nunan – CF
3. Matt Cotellese – RF
4. Kyle Bechter – 2B
5. Blair Dameron – 1B
6. Drew Pare – DH
7. Connor Thorp – LF
8. Brandon Wolfe – CA
9. Jake Griesemer – 3B
SPs: Chris Powl, Jason Bowman, David Slusser, Bret Moyer
KU Scouting Report
The Golden Bears are led offensively by Chad Lightcap (.398-5-27). He leads the team in batting average, homers, RBIs, runs scored (32), slugging percentage (.626), and on base percentage (.493). Jared Frey (.305-0-15) has progressed nicely in his second season and will man first base and bat in the top half of the order. Scott Kacelowicz (.310-0-8) and Matt Kulbacki (.308-5-23) have been a formidable catching combination and each will start one game. Mike Dugan (.290-1-14), Brett Wigder (.296-0-18), James Quigley (.299-0-7), and Corey Buletza (.287-1-16) have hit well in extensive action as freshmen. Leadoff man Mike Kacelowicz (.307-1-16) has lifted his average back above .300 and is tops on the team with 15 doubles and 21 walks. Jeff Kistle (.223-0-10), Mark Renda (.252-0-15), Nole Saylor (.259-0-5), and Andy May (.317-1-6) are four other freshman who will see a few at-bats during the weekend. Garrison Rausch (.174-0-7) will man center and bat in the lower part of the order.
Darin Gorski (7-2 2.30), Phil Rummel (4-4 2.98), Derick Reis (2-2 2.82), and Garrison Rausch (1-3 6.03) are likely to be the weekend’s four starters. Justin Jachowicz (0-3 3.24), Ryan Cassidy (1-2 5.17), and Steve Craig (2-1 4.09) are other candidates to make a spot start if needed.
Outlook
It is do-or-die time for the Golden Bears.
With all that said,
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Baseball moves back into playoff race
Friday, April 18 @
Game 1: L 1-2
The Golden Bears had as many errors as hits in game one, which allowed the Warriors to escape with a 2-1 victory. KU had just three hits—one a piece from Mike Kacelowicz, Matt Kulbacki, and Garrison Rausch. The three errors were costly as they spoiled a stellar outing by Phil Rummel, who tossed a complete game, allowing two unearned runs on six hits while striking out seven.
Game 2: W 11-6
The Kacelowicz brothers were a perfect 6-of-6 at the plate, which helped lead KU to a bounce back win in game two by a score of 11-6. Mike Kacelowicz, hitting out of the two-hole for the first time this season, was 4-of-4 with two runs and two RBIs. His brother Scott was 2-of-2 at the plate and had three RBIs. Matt Kulbacki was 3-for-3 and Brett Wigder was 2-of-4. Garrison Rausch was the winning pitcher, allowing three runs on four hits in five innings.
Saturday, April 19 vs.
Game 1: W 2-0
Darin Gorski continued his sensational 2008 season with a complete game, three-hit shutout in a 2-0 win in game one on Saturday. The KU offense managed just four hits, but a fourth inning two-run double by Jared Frey was all the support Gorski would need. Corey Buletza, Mike Kacelowicz, and Chad Lightcap had KU’s other three hits.
Game 2: W 10-3
Derek Reis got spanked in the top of the first inning, allowing three quick ESU runs, but the KU offense responded with three runs of it’s own in the bottom of the frame. Reis would then cruise through the rest of the day as his offense exploded to nine hits en route to a 10-3 KU win. Reis was the winning pitcher, allowing just the three first inning runs on four hits in five innings of work. Lightcap and Mike Kacelowicz led the offense with two hits a piece. Lightcap, leading off for the first time this season, had two RBIs and three runs scored.
What we liked:
Following the loss in game one of the four-game set, the Golden Bears had their backs up against the wall. The situation was basically win the next three games, or forget about the playoffs. Not only did the Golden Bears win all three games, but they dominated all three of them in some way. Darin Gorski dominated one of the wins, while the young offense finally exploded in the other two affairs. This was a great sign, as both the pitching staff and offense will need to be on top of their game when they play for their playoff lives this weekend against
Offensively, Mike Kacelowicz erased any memories of his mid-season slump, tearing the cover off the ball over the four game set. He was 8-of-12 (.667) at the plate, scored four runs, and drove in three. Matt Kulbacki caught two games and finally got a chance to DH another (it’s about time the way he’s hitting the ball). He was 4-of-8 (.500) at the plate and scored twice. Scott Kacelowicz had a big game on Saturday and was 2-for-4 (.500) with three RBIs and two runs scored on the weekend. Chad Lightcap was well below his average at 3-for-11 (.273), but scored four times. Jared Frey was only 3-of-13 (.231) at the plate, but drove in a team-high six runs and also scored twice.
I don’t have to say much more about how good Gorski looked on Saturday, but the other three starters were not far behind. Phil Rummel did not allow an earned run in his start on Friday and Derek Reis retired 11 straight after a disastrous first inning on Saturday. Garrison Rausch, who has struggled in 2008, improved his ERA and got a win on Friday when he allowed three runs in five innings.
What we didn’t like:
There were a lot of positives this weekend, so there isn’t much to say here. The Golden Bears really could’ve used that win in game on Friday, but the three errors were very costly. If KU misses the playoffs by a game, we could look back at that one and wonder what if. The offense was much better this weekend, but there were a notable few exceptions. After returning from injury a few weeks ago, James Quigley got off to a great start. However, he has struggled as of late in the cleanup spot and was just 1-of-5 (.200) with one RBI this weekend. Corey Buletza saw some work in the leadoff position (a place I could certainly see him getting a lot of time at down the road), but was just 2-of-10 (.200) at the plate this past weekend. Others who struggled at the dish included Garrison Rausch 1-of-5 (.200), Mike Dugan 1-of-7 (.143), and Jeff Kistle 1-of-10 (.100).
Impact:
The three wins improved KU’s divisional record to 8-8, which puts them in a tie with
Both of those matchups will impact KU’s attempt to hang on for playoff spot, but the Golden Bears can help themselves. They will need to beat
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Playoff berth on line for baseball team
What: Kutztown Golden Bears @ East Stroudsburg Warriors
When:
Where: Mitterling Field on the campus of
~and~
What:
When:
Where: North Campus Field on the campus of
Radio: Golden Bear Network at
Game Info
The KU baseball team will head into this weekend’s set of home-and-home doubleheaders with the East Stroudsburg Warriors looking to jump back into the PSAC playoff race.
The Golden Bears currently sit at 16-17 overall this season and are 5-7 in the PSAC East. They trail
KU’s latest divisional action was this past weekend when they scored a grand total of five
runs in four games en route to dropping three of four against Millersville. On Friday night, the Golden Bears were downed on the road by scores of 5-1 and 6-0. On Saturday at North Campus Field, they managed to take game one 3-2 before dropping game two 3-1.
KU played a few non-conference foes during the week with the results still unavailable. The Golden Bears will complete a pair of doubleheaders at
The Warriors are 16-21 overall this season and, as mentioned, are tied with KU for fourth in the East at 5-7. Their most recent action was a doubleheader split with Bloomsburg over the weekend. At home on Friday, they fell 9-7 before winning 8-0. Then on Saturday they won 15-4 and lost 10-6.
The two teams have already met once this season—an early season meeting in
Last year, the teams met a total of six times, including once during the PSAC playoffs. The Golden Bears won all five regular season meetings, including a 7-2 early season victory played in
Probable Starting Lineups
Kutztown:
1. Mike Kacelowicz – SS
2. Jared Frey – 1B
3.
4. James Quigley – DH/3B
5. Corey Buletza – LF/RF
6. Matt Kulbacki/Scott Kacelowicz – CA
7. Garrison Rausch – CF
8/9. Mark Renda/Mike Dugan/Jeff Kistle/Brett Wigder – UT
SPs: Phil Rummel, Darin Gorski, Garrison Rausch, Derek Reis
1.
2. Brendan O’Malley – 3B
3. Mike Bortz – CF
4. Chris Zsenak – 1B
5. Kyle Sheaffer – LF
6. Kevin Thompson – RF
7. Blake Knecht – DH
8. Brendan O’Connor – CA
9. Edwin Padua – SS
SPs: Dave Boyer, Jeremy Gigliotti, Bill Hezel, Christian Saveri, Steve Prazenka
Scouting Report
The Golden Bears are led offensively by Chad Lightcap (.419-5-23). He leads the team in batting average, homers, RBIs, runs scored (28), slugging percentage (.657), and on base percentage (.519). Jared Frey (.333-0-9) has progressed nicely in his second season and is second on the team in batting average. Scott Kacelowicz (.333-0-4) and Matt Kulbacki (.301-5-19) have been a formidable catching combination and both are hitting over .300. Brett Wigder (.304-0-14), James Quigley (.300-0-4), and Corey Buletza (.299-1-16) have hit well in extensive action as freshmen. Mike Kacelowicz (.288-1-12) has been mired in a slump, but remains the teams leadoff hitter and is tops on the team with 12 doubles and 17 walks. Mike Dugan (.276-1-9), Jeff Kistle (.257-0-10), Mark Renda (.245-0-14), Nole Saylor (.231-0-3), and Andy May (.192-0-3) are five other freshman who will see a decent amount of at-bats during the weekend. Garrison Rausch (.160-0-6), who has been starting to heat up at the plate, will man center and bat in the middle of the order. Buletza and Renda have a team high 14 steals.
Darin Gorski (6-2 2.61), Phil Rummel (4-3 3.40), and Derick Reis (1-2 2.43) are likely to be three of the weekend’s four starters. The fourth spot was Garrison Rausch’s (0-3 6.12) earlier this season, but his struggles may have lost him that spot. Against Millersville this past weekend, Justin Jachowicz (0-3 4.05) made his second start of the season. Ryan Cassidy (1-1 4.09) and Steve Craig (2-1 5.00) are likely candidates if Rausch or Jachowicz don’t get the call.
Chris Zsenak (.382-1-17) and Blake Knecht (.350-1-5) are good for more than having confusing last names, as they are one-two on the Warriors in hitting. Mike Bortz (.337-7-25) is tops on the team in homers and is tied with Kyle Sheaffer (.309-1-25) for the team lead in RBIs. Bortz and Zsenak each have scored a team-best 23 runs, while Sheaffer leads his squad with 11 steals.
Dave Boyer (5-3 4.60), Jeremy Gigliotti (2-4 7.11), Bill Hezel (2-6 7.56), Christian Saveri (3-2 4.70), and Steve Prazenka (2-1 3.89) are the likely candidates for the four starts. Saveri is the only one who hasn’t started at least six games this season, but he did get a start against Bloomsburg this past weekend.
The Golden Bears will obviously be looking to win all four games this weekend, but the team’s offensive struggles make that seem like wishful thinking. Fortunately for them, they do have the pitching to pull it off. The offense just needs to show up.
The Golden Bears could end up eliminated from the playoffs if they lose the series and that would a huge disappointment, as they certainly have the pitching they would need to make a run in PSACs. Basically, KU needs to take at least three games this weekend. After this four-game stretch, all that is left is four games with
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Bats remain quiet against Marauders
Friday, April 11 @ Millersville:
Game 1: L 1-5
Phil Rummel allowed just one earned run, but five KU errors allowed the Marauders to muster up five runs en route to the 5-1 win. Rummel threw the entire six innings for the Golden Bears and allowed just four hits, while striking out six. KU managed just three hits with Jeff Kistle accounting for two of them and Chap Lightcap recording the other.
Game 2: L 0-6
The offense was even worse in game two as it managed just two hits in a 6-0 loss. James Quigley and Garrison Rausch each had a single in the second inning. Justin Jachowicz started for KU and took the loss. He allowed just one run on three hits in four innings of work. Mike Bucklin got rocked for five runs on six hits in 1.2 innings of relief.
Saturday, April 12 vs. Millersville:
Game 1: W 3-2
Seven different Golden Bears recorded at least one hit as KU won game one on Saturday 3-2. Jeff Kistle was the only Golden Bears with multiple hits, going 2-for-3 at the plate with an RBI. Matt Kulbacki was 1-of-2 and had the other two RBIs. Darin Gorksi continued his stellar play on the hill, allowing just two runs, one earned, on five hits in a complete game effort. He struck out 10 Marauders.
Game 2: L 1-3
KU managed eight more hits in game two, but could get just one run across and fell 3-1. Scott Kacelowicz was 3-for-3 at the plate and drove in the only KU run. Garrison Rausch showed he is beginning to heat up by scoring the team’s lone run in a 2-for-3 effort at the dish. Derek Reis took the loss for KU
, allowing three runs on 12 hits in just over six innings of work.
What we liked:
Although it only resulted in wins in one of the four games, the starting pitching was stellar as usual. Darin Gorski continues to dominate and is now 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA this season. Derick Reis had a rough outing, but is still 1-2 with a 2.43 ERA in 2008. Phil Rummel had a nice outing if you ignore the five KU errors and is 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA this season. If the Golden Bears have a chance to come back and make the playoffs, it’s going to be the continued efforts of the pitching staff. Garrison Rausch has struggled on the hill and at the plate this season, but that wasn’t the case against Millersville. He wasn’t called on to pitch, but he was 3-of-6 (.500) at the plate and scored a run. Jeff Kistle was one of the top hitters as well, going 4-for-8 (.500) at the plate while driving in a run.
What we didn’t like:
The young offense has not been able to produce against the PSAC East pitching and it is costing them in the standings. Against Millersville, seven regulars (at least six total at-bats over the four games) batted .200 or worse. Mike Kacelowicz was 1-for-11 (.091), Chad Lightcap was 2-for-12 (.167), Jared Frey was 1-for-13 (.077), James Quigley was 2-for-10 (.200), Corey Buletza was 1-for-10 (.100), Mark Renda was 1-for-7 (.143), and Mike Dugan was 0-for-6 (.000). KU scored just five runs on 21 hits in the four games.
Impact:
The Golden Bears needed a split with the Marauders just to remain tied with them for the third and final playoff spot in the East. Instead, they fall to 5-7 and are tied with
Monday, March 31, 2008
Baseball splits with Bloom
Recap:
Saturday, March 29 vs. Bloomsburg:
Game 1: W 5-1
Darin Gorski (4-2) tossed a complete game, allowing one run on four hits en route to a 5-1 KU victory. DH James Quigley [Pictured], 1B Jared Frey, and CA Matt Kulbacki each had two hits, while SS Mike Kacelowicz has one. Quigley and LF Chad Lightcap each scored twice, while Frey knocked in a team-high two runs.
Game 2: L 0-1
The Golden Bears out-hit the Huskies 5-3, but failed to score a run and fell by a score of 1-0. Lightcap, Quigley, OF Mike Dugan, CA Scott Kacelowicz, and IF Mark Renda provided the five KU hits. Derek Reis took the loss for the Golden Bears despite allowing just one run on three hits in 5.2 innings of work.
Sunday, March 30 @ Bloomsburg:
Game 1: L 5-3
Two errors by KU allowed the Huskies to score four unearned runs in the sixth inning, propelling them to a 5-3 win. Garrison Rausch took the loss for KU, allowing five runs, one earned, one six hits in 5.1 innings. The Golden Bears managed just six hits, including a team-high two from Frey, who also scored a run. Scott Kacelowicz drove in two of KU’s three runs.
Game 2: W 10-4
The KU offense finally got rolling in Sunday’s second game, as they exploded to a 10-4 victory. Phil Rummel was on the hill for KU and allowed four runs, one earned, on nine hits in six innings of work. The Golden Bears’ offense was led by three-hit days from Quigley and Dugan. Contributing two hits a piece was Frey, Kulbacki, Rausch, and RF Corey Buletza, who also homered. Buletza drove in a team-high two runs, while Lightcap, Quigley, and Kulbacki each scored twice.
What we liked:
James Quigley was outstanding despite entering the weekend with 10 career at bats at KU. He was 7-of-15 (.467) at the plate and scored four runs. Jared Frey was 6-of-12 (.500), scored three times, and drove in three runs. Mike Dugan was 5 of-10 (.500), scored a pair of runs, and drove in two more. The catcher tandem of Scott Kacelowicz and Matt Kulbacki was also stellar, as they combined for six hits in nine at bats, as well as, four runs and two RBIs.
The pitching was much better than a 2-2 record might indicate. Each starter allowed just one earned run and all four of them (Gorski, Reis, Rausch, Rummel) lasted into the sixth inning.
What we didn’t like:
At times the offense looked extremely dull, and as you can tell from the boxscore and game recaps, it was extremely inconsistent. The Golden Bears scored four runs over two innings in game one on Saturday before getting shutout in game two. On Sunday, they broke through for three runs in the fourth inning, but that was their only run production. Then, in game two, they finally showed some consistent production, scoring at least one run in four different innings.
No complaints can be made about the stellar pitching, but there were a few players who struggled at the plate—not surprising for such a young squad. Mike Kacelowicz was just 2-of-14 (.143) at the plate and scored just once in the four games, which is unacceptable for a leadoff man. Mark Renda spends a lot of time in the two hole and was just 1-of-8 (.125) in the hitting department. The team’s best hitter Chad Lightcap bats from the three spot in the order and, although he did score four runs, he struggled to a 3-of-14 (.214) weekend at the plate. Garrison Rausch and Corey Buletza broke out in the final game of the weekend, but each managed just two hits a piece overall. Fellow freshmen Jeff Kistle and Brett Wigder combined for a 0-for-10 weekend.
Impact:
As mentioned in my preview for this series, KU needed to take at least three games from Bloomsburg. They failed to do that, but at least came away with wins in two of the four. The competition for a PSAC playoff berth will only get tougher from here, so manager Chris Blum is going to have to hope that his young team will continue to improve as the year goes on. There is no reason to believe that won’t be the case, as this is an extremely young team with loads of talent—not to mention a pitching staff that can keep them close in every game. I still think KU will sneak into the playoffs, but it’s going to be close. They will need to starting beating the team’s that are worse than them, unlike what happened this past weekend.