Analyzing The Hitting

Mark Renda

You might recall the projections I made for the 2009 KU baseball season based on advanced stats. How are they looking, you ask? Depends on how you look at it. Some of them appear to be not even close, while others are right on the money. The big difference maker (as is always the case) is Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). A high one will inflate a hitter’s numbers, while a low one will distort them to the lower end of the spectrum. Generally, BABIP will revert close to the player’s average, but since most of these players will see less than 500 career at-bats, sample size is an obvious problem.

That all being said, BABIP is something we can look at to see what is probably going to happen as the season wears on. Since we are almost exactly halfway through the season, now is as good a time as any to take a look at a few of the team’s every day players.

Chad Lightcap – In his senior season, Lightcap is struggling to live up to the impressive numbers he put up the last three years. After notching a 1.013 and 1.050 OPS the last two seasons, respectively, he sits at .964 through 73 at-bats in 2009. The most notable area where has struggled is the strikeout department. After improving his K-rate from 17.4% in 2007 to 12.6% last season, it has ballooned to a whopping 28.8% so far this year.

Fortunately for KU fans, there is still a lot to like here. Lightcap’s walk rate has actually increased quite a bit. Despite his strikeout rate, an OPS almost 100 points lower than last season, and a huge drop in his slugging percentage, his OBP is actually not far off last year’s pace. His BABIP is a little bit higher than last season, which is actually not a good sign since he is struggling, but the K-rate appears to be the main issue. Once Lightcap begins turning his strikeouts into balls in play, he should be back to the player we’re used to seeing.

Corey Buletza – The Golden Bears’ leadoff hitter and centerfielder has been outstanding so far in 2009, showing a lot of improvement in his sophomore campaign. His OBP is up about 40 points to .383 and his OPS has jumped from .699 to .849. His strikeout rate is down about 8% to 10.2%, but is being mostly offset by a decline in walk rate. Buletza has walked just 4 times so far this year, a decline of over 3%.

His projections originally came in expecting him to be better than he was last year, but were worse than what he is actually putting up. This is mostly due to his .380 BABIP, which is well above the .338 mark he saw last season. I suspect that he won’t maintain the .380 BABIP and his numbers will drop slightly by the end of the season. That said, even with a slight decline, he will still be a more than capable leadoff hitter.

James Quigley – The team’s top option at designated hitter has put my projections to shame by maintaining an impressive BABIP. After putting up a .408 mark in 2008, he is up to .419 this season, albeit in just 52 at-bats. It is hard to imagine that staying above .400 for much longer, but a figure more in the .380 range seems possible. Thanks to the improved BABIP, his OBP and SLG are both well beyond where they were last season despite a slightly higher K-rate and a worse walk rate.
Expect a dip in BABIP, but not enough to really hurt Quigley’s production. He has proven to be a valuable commodity in the middle of the Kutztown order.

Brett Wigder/Mark Renda – The Wigder/Renda platoon at shortstop may not appear to be very productive on paper, but it’s not hard to see why either is struggling at the plate.

Wigder has seen a drop in BABIP from .333 last season to .235 this year. After being on base over 42% of the time last year, his OBP is down to .276 in 2009. Poor plate discipline appears to be the culprit here as his walk rate is down to 5.3% from 17.3% last season. On the plus side, his strikeout rate is down almost 10%. Wigder’s BABIP will likely improve down the stretch and his numbers should only improve.

Renda has also seen a drop in batting average this year, but has actually been more productive than in 2008. He is a prime example of why batting average is not a very good statistic to use in evaluating players. His OBP is up a ton to .391, his SLG is up to .378, and all this comes despite a bit of a BABIP decrease. Renda’s walk rate is up 5% and his K-rate has increased only slightly. Basically, Renda is turning singles from last season into walks and extra base hits this season. The fact that he is playing better than last year despite a lower BABIP means only good things are coming for him down the stretch.

Jared Frey – Frey, the team’s first baseman and cleanup hitter, has, as expected, seen somewhat of a balancing act by his BABIP. If you recall from the season preview, his BABIP was .406 in 2007, but dropped all the way down to .271 last year. This season, it sits at .299, which is still lower than where I think it will be by the end of the year.

His OBP is up a ton from last season thanks to an improved walk rate and the aforementioned better luck on balls hit in play. Frey appears right on track with my pre-season projection and should only get better as the year goes on.

Jeff Kistle/Mike Dugan – Like the first platoon we discussed, the Kistle/Dugan duo in right field has not blown the socks off of anybody this year. However, one half of this platoon has been way better than the other.

Kistle has seen a monstrous turn around in the BABIP department, as it is all the way up to .371 this year. However, his stats have not really mirrored that improvement as expected. His OBP is up slightly, but his slugging percentage is actually down to .321. We know Kistle needed to improve his strikeout rate and he has actually been a lot worse in his second season. As if his 37.5% strikeout rate wasn’t enough, his walk rate is also down slightly. Kistle will need to find a way to put the ball in play a bit more, or he will end up on the short end of the platoon.

Dugan has seen his production improve after a very impressive job in 149 plate appearances as a freshman. A lower strikeout rate and better walk rate appears to be the main reasons for his improvement. Dugan is one of the few to have maintained his BABIP from last season. However, despite only a .005 jump in that department, his numbers have increased more significantly than expected thanks to the improved K/BB figures. His OBP is up to .444 from .396 and his slugging is up over 20 points to .411. His .855 OPS is equivalent to the team average and, more importantly in terms of playing time, is light years ahead of Kistle.

Matt Kulbacki – Like Frey, Kulbacki was a victim of the “roaming-BABIP” his first two seasons at KU. Unlike Frey, his BABIP is actually even further off the map this season. After hitting .366 with a .419 BABIP in 2007, his average dropped to .276 with a .267 BABIP last year. This season the average is up to .377 thanks to a ridiculous .462 BABIP. Despite a lower walk rate and almost doubling his K-rate from the last 2 seasons, Kulbacki’s OPS is 1.026 this season as compared to .860 last year.

Obviously, KU’s top catcher is tearing the cover off the ball, but there is no way this keeps up. His homeruns are actually down from last year, and, as mentioned, he is not walking as much and is striking out way too much. His 3.25 K/BB ratio is second worst on the team behind only Kistle. Kulbacki is a great power hitter and will produce, but not at his current pace.

Mike Kacelowicz – After putting up a BABIP of .340 in 2007 and a .339 mark in 2008, predicting his numbers seemed pretty simple for 2009. Yeah, right. The team’s two-hitter and second baseman sports a .400 BABIP so far and has blown away his numbers from the last two years. Despite also seeing an increase in K-rate, he is one of the few Golden Bears to actually improve in the walks department. His OPS is up over 100 points to .940 and he’s been on base 46.3% of the time. He also has 8 steals, and in the irrelevant stats department, he is already closing in on his career highs in runs and RBIs.

Shayne Houck – Well this should be fun. I have no historical statistics to compare the club’s freshman third baseman to, so I’m flying blind on this one. Houck has been the team’s MVP at the plate so far this year, hitting a ridiculous .430, while clubbing 4 homers. His 1.235 OPS leads the team and his .538 OBP is outstanding.

If you read this entire article, you probably know where I’m going next: BABIP. His .465 mark is tops on the team and is all but unsustainable. Put it this way, since 1995, the highest BABIP among Kutztown players with at least 120 at-bats is .455 by Rob Ferry back in ’95.

That all being said, Houck is obviously an excellent hitter who will continue to produce. His K/BB ratio is one of the best on the team, he is hitting the long ball, and he is getting on base in several different ways. Houck appears to have one heck of a future ahead of him.

That will do it for now. Hopefully that is a good recap of the first half of the season and a good preview of the second half. I’ll get a similar analysis of pitching up as soon as I have some time.

A look ahead: 2009 Baseball

What I’ve posted here is a look ahead to the 2009 baseball season. You’ll see a projected starting lineup and pitching rotation, as well as, a look at the returning bench and the incoming freshmen. Each returning player will include a brief capsule and/or analysis and 2009 projections. Keep in mind, I have at my disposal a limited amount of statistics and a relatively small sample size to use in making projections. I also cannot predict player progression, so it’s likely that some of last year’s freshmen will improve this offseason. With that said, all projections are based solely on each player’s KU career through 2008.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B – Jared Frey – Jr – Frey will return as the team’s everyday firstbaseman and will look to improve on an inconsistent season that ended with a .246 batting average. The junior managed just a .662 OPS, which is not acceptable, since he will likely hit in the top half of the Kutztown order. His struggles in 2007 can be blamed on a .271 BABIP, which was well below the .344 PSAC average. Frey is not much of a power threat, having yet to homer in 184 collegiate at-bats.

What to expect: Frey will likely get about 150 at-bats in 2008. Expect a dramatic increase in batting average to somewhere around .290 since his BABIP is unlikely to remain so low. A better OPS will come with the improved batting average and I expect that to be in the .741 range. (Projection: .288/.356/.385)

2B – Mike Kacelowicz – Jr – Kacelowicz began 2008 at shortstop, but returned to his 2007 secondbase position midway through the season and will likely return there next year. In his second season with KU, Kacelowicz led off most of the team’s games, hit .305, and managed an average .391 on base percentage.

What to expect: Kacelowicz is likely to return to the tablesetting role in 2009. His career .339 BABIP and .302 batting average have stayed consistent and are right near the league averages, which means his numbers from 2008 are likely to repeat next year. His improved K/BB ratio indicates he will only be on base more in 2009. (Projection: .303/.409/.424)

SS – Mark Renda – So – Renda finished up his rookie campaign getting a majority of the starting time at shortstop and is a strong candidate to get the starting nod in 2009. He stole a team-high 17 bases last year and will be relied on to do the same in his sophomore season.

What to expect: His .279 BABIP indicates he was extremely unlucky at the plate and so an improved batting average is a sure bet. (Projection: .313/.388/.370)

3B – James Quigley – So – Quigley missed the early portion of his freshman season due to an injury, but contributed as the cleanup hitter immediately upon his arrival. Despite missing several games, he still managed 140 plate appearances, recording a .345 average and an impressive .930 OPS. He managed just one homer, but showed gap power with 14 doubles. Quigley will likely see a majority of his playing time at third, but likely will see plenty of at-bats as the DH.

What to expect: As good as Quigley played, his numbers were heavily inflated by a .408 BABIP, which is all but unsustainable. He is likely to improve with one year of experience under his belt, but expect to see some statistical regression once his BABIP decreases closer to the .344 PSAC average. (Projection: .306/.410/.449)

LF – Chad Lightcap – Sr – [Pictured] Lightcap will enter his senior season as one of the top hitters in the PSAC. He is fresh off a six homerun season in which he hit .366 and notched an ridiculous 1.050 OPS. He also stole seven bases and was responsible for creating a team-best 48 runs. Lightcap saw a dramatic drop in BABIP from his sophomore to junior campaign (.433-to-.387), but only saw a 10 point drop in batting average and actually raised his OPS. The most striking improvement in Lightcap’s 2008 game was a much better strikeout/walk ratio. Following a combined 47 strikeouts to 31 walks during his first two years, Lightcap struck out just 22 times and drew 27 walks in 2008. Lightcap will continue his role as a left fielder and designated player in 2009. It is unclear whether he will hit leadoff (as he did much of the 2008 playoffs) or if he will return to his spot in the heart of the order.

What to expect: There is no doubting Lightcap’s ability with the bat and his statistical consistency the last three seasons leads me to believe that his 2009 numbers will mirror his career averages. His .394 career BABIP in 532 at-bats suggests he will continue to blow away the league average, but he is more likely to see at least a slight decrease once again during his senior season. (Projection: .345/.442/.545)

CF – Corey Buletza – So – This is mostly me speculating, but Buletza’s speed and ability to play all three outfield positions seems to make him a strong candidate to see a majority of the starts in center in 2009. Buletza stole 15 bases in his rookie season and managed a .284 batting average. He didn’t show much power, but has the speed to pull a triple out of the bag at any time. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a shot to lead off in front of Kacelowicz and Lightcap.

What to expect: His BABIP was right around league average so his .284 average isn’t likely to change. He did strikeout 28 times, while managing to draw just 13 walks. An improvement in that department would lead to a better on base percentage, which could lead to more steal opportunities, and inevitably more runs. (Projection: .286/.342/.360)

RF – Jeff Kistle – So – Kistle was one of the few Golden Bears whose numbers were lower than his play may have indicated thanks in part to a very low .284 BABIP. In his freshman campaign, he proved to be a free swinger, with most of his at-bats ending with either a double or a strikeout. His 31 strikeouts were most among returning players and 42-percent (10-of-24) of his hits went for two bases. Kistle will likely return to his role as the starting rightfielder.

What to expect: Kistle’s BABIP can only improve, which means his numbers should be much better across the board. If Kistle can also straighten out his K/BB ratio, he could see the biggest improvement in the statbook of anyone on the roster. (Projection: .258/.333/.374)

CA – Matt Kulbacki – Jr – Kulbacki will likely see even more of the catching workload next season due to the departure of 2008 backup Scott Kacelowicz. Kulbacki was one of the team’s main power threats last year, knocking in 32 runs and smoking seven homers. He will be a strong candidate to hit fourth or fifth in the lineup. Kulbacki is an excellent example of how BABIP can distort a player’s statistics. His .419 BABIP in 2007, which to no one’s surprise produced a .366 batting average, was clearly unsustainable and it saw a huge drop last year. Kulbacki went from extremely lucky in 2007 to almost the polar opposite in 2008, suffering through a .267 BABIP, which landed him a .276 batting average. If you average his first two seasons together, you get a better indicator of what he can do with the bat.

What to expect: Barring another crazy BABIP fluctuation, Kulbacki will likely hit around .320 and should be near the team leaders in homers and slugging. As long as he isn’t worn down from a bigger catching load, Kulbacki should improve on his sophomore year production. (Projection: .326/.424/.478)

Returning to the Bench:

1B – Andy May – So – Will see some time at first. (Projection: .317/.423/.428)

2B/SS – Brett Wigder – So – Should see a significant amount of playing time in the middle infield. (Projection: .294/.428/.305)

1B/3B – Mike Dugan – So – Will see playing time at the corners and at designated player. (Projection: .277/.385/.374)

CA – Dom Fantanarosa – Sr – The only returning catcher besides Kulbacki will battle for time with freshman Knee. (Projection: .302/.387/.395)

OF – Nole Saylor – So – Will see plenty of starts in the outfield. (Projection: .289/.375/.397) *UPDATE: Saylor will not be back for the 2009 season. (8/20/09)*

Projected Starting Pitchers:

[FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) is part of what I use to analyze each of the pitcher’s statistics. Unfortunately, FIP isn’t a perfect indicator of relief pitchers and so the projections could suffer for guys moving from the bullpen to the rotation. I’ll do my best to address this issue in all projections.]

LHP – Darin Gorski – Jr – [Pictured] Although Phil Rummel was the veteran of the group, the case could be made that Gorski was the team’s ace in 2008. With Rummel now in the Houston Astros organization, there is no doubt that Gorski is coach Blum’s number one option on the hill. In two seasons at KU, Gorski sports a combined 12-4 record and a 2.50 ERA.

What to expect: Experts say that BABIP is an uncontrollable stat for pitchers, but Kutztown pitching has been well below the PSAC average for years (a good thing). Gorski is one of the main culprits of this, managing a career .264 BABIP (compared to the PSAC average .337 and team average of .308). In my research, it appears that, at the Division II level, great pitchers can keep their opponents BABIP lower than the league average and thus can manage numbers that would be Cy Young material at the major league level. With all that said, I expect Gorski’s BABIP and 69% LOB% to regress at least slightly in 2009. His K/9 and GB/FB ratios were better in his sophomore season, which are both signs of good things to come. (Projection: 3.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.7 K/9)

RHP – Mike Bucklin – Jr – Bucklin enters the 2009 season with a chance to become a regular in the KU rotation. In his sophomore season, Bucklin saw a dramatic dip from 9.8 to 5.2 in the K/9 department, which could be worrisome. With that said, he did cut down his flyballs dramatically, which is certainly a good thing. Maintaining his career 7.2 K/9, along with a an improvement to his career 1.49 WHIP will be important if Bucklin hopes to succeed in the rotation.

What to expect: Assuming his K rate hangs in there at his career average and he continues to get ground balls, Bucklin should be effective. A better walk rate would do wonders for his numbers. (Projection: 4.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

RHP - Trent Mertz – So – Mertz will enter his sophomore season fresh off a season in which he managed a team-best 1.80 ERA out of the bullpen. He could be called on to start in 2009 and will be looking to improve is K/rate. Mertz was a bit lucky, sporting a .282 BABIP and a LOB% of 76%.

What to expect: Assuming his LOB% and BABIP regress at least slightly, Mertz will see a spike in ERA in 2009. Based on the numbers from his rookie year, I still expect him to be effective, but more strikeouts couldn’t hurt. (Projection: 2.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

RHP – Jason Herr – So – Herr worked primarily out of the bullpen in his freshman campaign, but could compete for a job in the starting rotation in 2009. His 3.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP were assisted by a low .255 BABIP and a ridiculously low 56% LOB%. With that said, he did manage a good 7.9 K/9 and drew a decent amount of ground balls.

What to expect: Like the other sophomores-to-be, I expect Herr to improve across the board in his second season. (Projection: 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.9 K/9)

LHP – Ryan Cassidy – Jr – Cassidy was used as a reliever in his first two seasons, but could get a starting nod in 2009. The junior southpaw is a great example of how a fluctuating BABIP and LOB% can affect a pitcher’s statistics. In his rookie campaign, Cassidy sported an impressive 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. When you look deeper, you see a LOB% of 85% and just a .229 BABIP. Now, move forward a year to his second season in 2008. Cassidy’s ERA ballooned to .379 and his WHIP jumped to 1.42. So, he was worse last year, right? Not exactly. His LOB% took a dip to 69%, which is still a little high, and his BABIP skyrocketed to near the PSAC average at .329. Still, his K-rate was almost identical to that of his rookie season and he also drew more ground balls in his second season. His walk rate did go up slightly last season, but is that to blame for the ERA and WHIP increases? Not really. This is a case where luck seems to be the culprit.

What to expect: Now with 46 career innings of record, Cassidy’s numbers are evening out. He appears to have a lot of potential with a team-best 2:1 GO:FO rate last year and an average of just over 7 K/9. (Projection: 3.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

Returning to the pitching staff:

RHP - Anthony Fegely – So – Needs to work out control issues after 11.6 BB/9 and 2 HBP in 9.1 innings last year. (Projection: 4.89 ERA, 2.16 WHIP*, 8.7 K/9) *2.16 WHIP should drop dramatically if he corrects walk problem.

LHP - Jordan Smith – So – If Cassidy starts, Smith will be top returning lefty in the pen. (Projection: 4.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.5 K/9)

RHP - Steve Craig – Sr - Struggled in six starts last season, but is the only senior pitcher on the roster. Career 6.87 ERA and 2.06 WHIP are no fluke and very indicative of control issues. (Projection: 6.08 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 7.0 K/9)

RHP – Kevin Morganti – Jr - Hasn’t pitched since 2006 due to injury and was less than impressive before going down. (Projection: 4.73 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 4.2 K/9)

RHP - Mike Moran – So – Was effective in just under 17 innings of relief work in his first season. (Projection: 3.71 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.2 K/9)

Incoming freshmen:

Shayne Houck (IF) – [Pictured – www.baseball.legion.org] Was a standout pitcher and corner infielder at Boyertown.
Matt Frei (OF/RHP) – Expected to see time on the hill and in the field if he can.
Johann Knee (UT) – 5’10” 175 pound righty can catch and play either corner infield spot. More Info
Cody Montz (IF) – All-state second baseman for Schuylkill Haven HS
Matt Patteson (RHP) – Righty was the ace at Cedar Crest HS
Jacob Shnee (RHP) – Pitcher at Pleasant Valley HS

Departures:

P - Phil Rummel (Senior)
P - Justin Jachowicz (Senior)
P/CF - Garrison Rausch (Senior)
P - Derick Reis (Senior)
C - Scott Kacelowicz (Transfer - Bloomsburg)
OF - Bryan Riggins (Senior)

Key:
OPS = OBP+SLG
LOB% = Left on base percentage
BABIP = Batting Avg. on Balls In Play
(.###,.###,.###) = (BA, OBP, SLG)

Special thanks to Josh Leiboff for providing me with the extra statistical information I requested.

Bats remain quiet against Marauders

Recap:
Friday, April 11 @ Millersville:
Game 1: L 1-5
Phil Rummel allowed just one earned run, but five KU errors allowed the Marauders to muster up five runs en route to the 5-1 win. Rummel threw the entire six innings for the Golden Bears and allowed just four hits, while striking out six. KU managed just three hits with Jeff Kistle accounting for two of them and Chap Lightcap recording the other.
Game 2: L 0-6
The offense was even worse in game two as it managed just two hits in a 6-0 loss. James Quigley and Garrison Rausch each had a single in the second inning. Justin Jachowicz started for KU and took the loss. He allowed just one run on three hits in four innings of work. Mike Bucklin got rocked for five runs on six hits in 1.2 innings of relief.

Saturday, April 12 vs. Millersville:
Game 1: W 3-2
Seven different Golden Bears recorded at least one hit as KU won game one on Saturday 3-2. Jeff Kistle was the only Golden Bears with multiple hits, going 2-for-3 at the plate with an RBI. Matt Kulbacki was 1-of-2 and had the other two RBIs. Darin Gorksi continued his stellar play on the hill, allowing just two runs, one earned, on five hits in a complete game effort. He struck out 10 Marauders.
Game 2: L 1-3
KU managed eight more hits in game two, but could get just one run across and fell 3-1. Scott Kacelowicz was 3-for-3 at the plate and drove in the only KU run. Garrison Rausch showed he is beginning to heat up by scoring the team’s lone run in a 2-for-3 effort at the dish. Derek Reis took the loss for KU, allowing three runs on 12 hits in just over six innings of work.

What we liked:
Although it only resulted in wins in one of the four games, the starting pitching was stellar as usual. Darin Gorski continues to dominate and is now 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA this season. Derick Reis had a rough outing, but is still 1-2 with a 2.43 ERA in 2008. Phil Rummel had a nice outing if you ignore the five KU errors and is 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA this season. If the Golden Bears have a chance to come back and make the playoffs, it’s going to be the continued efforts of the pitching staff. Garrison Rausch has struggled on the hill and at the plate this season, but that wasn’t the case against Millersville. He wasn’t called on to pitch, but he was 3-of-6 (.500) at the plate and scored a run. Jeff Kistle was one of the top hitters as well, going 4-for-8 (.500) at the plate while driving in a run.

What we didn’t like:
The young offense has not been able to produce against the PSAC East pitching and it is costing them in the standings. Against Millersville, seven regulars (at least six total at-bats over the four games) batted .200 or worse. Mike Kacelowicz was 1-for-11 (.091), Chad Lightcap was 2-for-12 (.167), Jared Frey was 1-for-13 (.077), James Quigley was 2-for-10 (.200), Corey Buletza was 1-for-10 (.100), Mark Renda was 1-for-7 (.143), and Mike Dugan was 0-for-6 (.000). KU scored just five runs on 21 hits in the four games.

Impact:
The Golden Bears needed a split with the Marauders just to remain tied with them for the third and final playoff spot in the East. Instead, they fall to 5-7 and are tied with East Stroudsburg for fourth. West Chester leads the way at 8-4 and Mansfield and Millersville are both 7-5. KU has yet to play the nationally-ranked Golden Rams of West Chester, but still has a four game set with them after this weekend’s four spot with ESU. The Golden Bears will need continued strong efforts from the pitching staff and will need a few more runs a game from the offense if they hope to return to the playoffs. A weekend sweep against ESU would be huge. Stay tuned.