Ladies set to host Edinboro

What: Edinboro Fighting Scots @ Kutztown Golden Bears
When: Saturday, January 10, 2009 @ 1 p.m.
Where: Keystone Hall on the campus of Kutztown University

The KU women’s basketball team will play host to Edinboro on Saturday in what will be the team’s first home PSAC Crossover game of the 2008-09 campaign. The Golden Bears are 9-2 this season, which includes a 2-1 record against PSAC West teams. KU kicked the season off with a 66-51 victory over Slippery Rock as part of November’s Kutztown Classic and this past weekend split against two western division foes, falling 98-59 to Gannon before taking care of Clarion 87-69.

Meanwhile, Edinboro comes into town at 7-4 and is fresh off a weekend sweep of PSAC East contenders Mansfield and Bloomsburg. The Fighting Scots beat MU 88-65 on Saturday before crushing BU 77-55 on Sunday. Edinboro, coached by Stan Swank, went 17-10 last season, including 6-6 in the PSAC West.

In last season’s only meeting between the teams, Edinboro snuck out of Keystone Hall with a 48-46 victory in what was a solid defensive game by both teams. The score was 18-17 at the half in favor of Edinboro, which used 23 points from Samantha Reimer to carry them to the eventual 2 point victory. Melissa McQuade was the high scorer among returning players for KU, notching 8 points.

The Golden Bears will be looking to prove that their 9-2 early-season record is no fluke. With their nine wins coming against a less than impressive cast of opponents for the most part (SRU, Pitt-Johnstown, USP, Lincoln, Columbia Union x2, PSU-Berks, Chestnut Hill, Clarion), the Golden Bears need to get a few strong games in against top PSAC teams before divisional play begins next week.

Speaking of which, following tomorrow’s home PSAC West crossover contest with Lock Haven at 1 p.m., the Golden Bears will head to East Stroudsburg on Wednesday to open up PSAC East play against the Warriors. That game is set for 6 p.m.

Probable Starters:
Edinboro:
F- # 22 – Kelsey Conklin
F- # 32 – Renee Brown
F- # 14 – Micki Cerchiaro
G- # 33 – Samantha Reimer
G- # 20 – Casey Heller
Kutztown:
C- # 33 – Chauntelle Schroeder
F- # 23 – Melissa McQuade
F- # 32 – Katie Dovey
G- # 11 – Rachel Wisemiller
G- # 13 – Meredith Starr

Scouting Report:
The Golden Bears are led by superstar sophomore forward Melissa McQuade, who is undoubtedly one of the PSAC’s finest players. McQuade is averaging 17.2 points and 8.9 rebounds this season, which are team bests. Her 31 steals, 50% three-point percentage, and 56.3% field goal percentage are team best and her 43 assists are second best.

Junior Rachel Wisemiller [Pictured at top of story] will start at the 2 or 3 position and will be relied on for her three point shooting ability. Wisemiller has made 40% of her 80 three point attempts this season and is second on the team in scoring, averaging 15.2 PPG. Junior center Chauntelle Schroeder didn’t see much action her first two seasons at KU before jumping into a starting role this season, but has answered the call by averaging 9.5 points and 6.3 rebounds a game. Sophomore point guard Meredith Starr has struggled as of late, but is still one of the PSAC’s best in terms of assist/turnover ratio. Her 62 dimes this season put her on pace to break the school’s single-season record.

Senior guard Lara Dellegrotti or junior forward Katie Dovey will man the other starting spot, but both should see significant action regardless. Dellegrotti has been a starter since arriving at KU, but has been plagued by injuries and is working her way back into the lineup as she tries to get back to 100% health. She averages 12 points per game when she plays, has 26 assists, and is one of the team’s best shooters. Dovey has done a fine job replacing Dellegrotti in the starting lineup and could get the nod this weekend. She has scored just under 6 points and grabbed just above 4 rebounds a game. [Update: It was confirmed this week by Coach Malouf that Dovey will start in place of Dellegrotti once again this weekend.]

Freshmen forwards Brittany Le Van, Hannah Mertz, and Brittany Greaves are expected to see limited action off the bench. Junior guard Vivian Melvin and freshman guard Vanina Bonanno, who made her debut against Gannon on Saturday, will spell the backcourt for time.

Edinboro is led by junior guard Samantha Reimer, who paces the team with 21.9 PPG and 46 assists. Her 179 shots, including 68 threes, and 58 turnovers show that she isn’t afraid to try and make plays, so KU will need to try and frustrate her with its stingy defense. Meanwhile, two other Fighting Scots are averaging double figures in scoring this season, with junior forward Kelsey Conklin managing 19.7 a game and freshman forward Renee Brown contributing 13.2 a game. The other two starters are expected to be freshman forward Micki Cerchiaro (9.5 PPG) and junior guard Casey Heller (4.5 PPG). Conklin leads the team with 8.5 rebounds a game and 30 steals, while Brown paces the way with 12 blocks.

Prediction:
It’s still a bit too early to know how PSAC teams are going to match up, but Edinboro made a big statement this past weekend when they smoked Bloomsburg and Mansfield. The Golden Bears disappointed against the West’s top team in Gannon on Saturday, but did bounce back strong with a thrashing of Clarion on Sunday.

I expect KU to come out strong this weekend against an extremely talented Edinboro squad. The Golden Bears have the firepower to win this game if they shoot well and I believe they will carry the momentum from Sunday into this game, keeping it close throughout. In the end, KU will slip by thanks to a Rachel Wisemiller last second three pointer.

Edinboro 58
Kutztown 60

A Starr in the making?

With the women’s basketball team off to an impressive 6-0 start this season, it’s about that time where we will begin debating whether or not this team is for real or not. One way to do that is to review the improvement of some of the team’s key players.

Melissa McQuade, Lara Dellegrotti, and Rachel Wisemiller have received most of the spotlight for the early success, and while it is certainly warranted, the success of those three should not be much of a surprise. All three players were outstanding a year ago and are continuing that trend here in the early portion of 2008-09.

One player who doesn’t jump out in the scoring column of the boxscore, but who deserves a lot of credit for both her improvement this season and for the team’s strong start is sophomore guard Meredith Starr.

After hitting a game-winning three pointer off the bench in her first collegiate game, Starr was thrown into the starter’s role just two games later and suffered through some growing pains throughout the year.

This year, Starr entered her sophomore season as a starter in the backcourt and has quietly been sensational. She’s shown improvement in almost every single statistical category, which begs the question, is she for real or is this simply a product of the team’s relatively easy early season schedule? We won’t know for sure until PSAC games start in a few weeks, but it’s never too early to check out her progress. I’m usually a stickler for sample size, but I compared Starr’s numbers from last season to her numbers so far in six games this year.

Shooting Percentage:
Starr has been shooting the ball better this season, improving her overall field goal percentage from 29% to 34%. That is not a mind-blowing improvement, but it is easy to trace. Last season, 56% of her shots were from beyond the three point arc. This season, only 43% of her shots have come from long range. So, despite the fact that she has seen her three-point percentage drop one point to 27% this year, she has still improved her overall shooting percentage simply by improving her shooting percentage on 2 point field goals from 30% to 40%.

I already mentioned she is taking less three pointers per game, but another statistic that jumped out at me was the fact that she is actually taking slightly less total shots per minute of action, which is not a bad thing, as it opens up the opportunity for her to improve in other categories, which is a good segue (I’d swear that word was spelled ‘segway’ until today) to…

Assists:
This is where Starr has really stood out this season. She has more assists per minute this season (.201) than all but one Golden Bear (J. Needham 94-95) has managed since 1992. After notching 69 dimes in 685 minutes of 27 games as a freshman, she already has 40 assists this season in 199 minutes of 6 games. At this pace, she will put up 180 helpers this season, which would absolutely shatter Megan Bainbridge’s KU single-season record of 148. As of December 11, Starr leads the entire PSAC in assists and assists per game. Having committed only 11 turnovers this year (1.8 per game), she is also first in assist/turnover ratio.

Points:
Let’s be honest, Starr’s number one priority is not scoring. Her job is to run the point and set up her outstanding shooters with easy scoring opportunities. We know she’s done that well, but how well is she doing when she actually does have to shoot? Well, we already mentioned she is shooting more efficiently and taking fewer shots. That has translated into an increase in points per game from 4.1 to 5.7 and an increase in points per minute from .162 to .171. So, there is not much change here, but the improvement is worth noting.

Rebounding:
Am I really going to discuss a point guard’s rebounding statistics? Yes, I am. Starr already has already hauled in 31 rebounds this year, which is exactly half of her total for 2007-08. She is averaging 5.2 total rebounds per game (.156 per minute) compared to 2.3 RPG last year (.091 per minute). Her offensive rebounds are actually slightly down, which means many of her boards are coming on the defensive glass. Again, rebounding isn’t a priority for a point guard, but hey, 5 rebounds a game are 5 possessions a game.

Minutes:
In an article I wrote a few weeks ago about Head Coach Janet Malouf (Malouf ’08: Time for Change), I mentioned Malouf’s trend of giving her players a ton of minutes in their first year, just to see them drop considerably in their sophomore season. That has not been the case with Starr. After seeing 25.4 minutes per game last season, she has seen her floor time rise to a hefty 33.2 MPG. You are probably thinking “Holy Cow, that is a lot of minutes!” You’re right it is, but there is a good reason for it. The suspension of Vanina Bonanno and the injuries to Vivian Melvin and Lara Dellegrotti have left Starr and Wisemiller as the only healthy true 1-2 guards on the roster. Expect Starr’s minutes to drop under the 30 minute mark once Melvin and Dellegrotti return.

Other Notes:
Starr is also doing several of the little things better in her sophomore campaign. She is averaging one foul every 3 games this year after committing 1.6 fouls per game last season. Her free throw percentage is up from 67% to 75%. Finally, she is snatching 1.3 steals a game after averaging 0.7 last year.

In conclusion, is this enough evidence to anoint Meredith Starr as one of the PSAC’s best point guards? Probably not. Is it enough evidence to show that she has improved from last season and is a player who can effectively run the point for the Golden Bears over the next three years? Yes, it probably is. My only disclaimer here, is that KU has played what some would call “easy” opponents and Starr will need to prove herself once the PSAC games start in a few weeks. The moment she begins putting up 6 points, 5 boards, 8 assists, 1 foul, and 2 turnovers in 34 minutes against teams like West Chester, Millersville, and Shippensburg is the moment we can anoint her Saint Starr. I like the sound of that.

A look ahead: 2008-09 Women's Basketball

Here is an early look at the roster head coach Janet Malouf has assembled for the 2008-09 Women’s Basketball season.

Returning from last season:

Lara Dellegrotti – Senior Point Guard

Dellegrotti will enter her senior season as the favorite to run the point. Arguably the team’s best shooter, Dellegrotti was a team-best 41% shooter from beyond the arc and her pinpoint accuracy from long range will be counted on again in her final season. It is likely she will also see some time at shooting guard when Meredith Starr is in the game. The senior point guard has suffered through a few injuries during her KU career, but still managed to appear in 23 of the team’s 27 games last season and started in 19 of those contests. Expect her to improve her 6.6 PPG from 2007-08, which is well below her capabilities. Coach Malouf traditionally preaches a pass-first mentality to her point guards, which leaves a majority of Dellegrotti’s shots to come from long range. Of Dellegrotti’s 136 shots last season, 76 were three-pointers, 31 of which were good.

Rachel Wisemiller - Junior Shooting Guard

Wisemiller was the closest thing to the team’s “sixth man” last season, and that should make her a front runner for a spot in the starting lineup in 2008-09. Wisemiller was fourth on the team in scoring last year despite starting just three games. Arguably the team’s most efficient shooter, the junior averaged 6.8 PPG, while averaging just over 19 minutes of action a game. Her 43% shooting percentage was second to just Mercedes Van Wagner among regulars. Watch for Wisemiller to break out as one of the team’s go-to scorers in 2008-09.

Vivian Melvin – Junior Shooting Guard

Entering her third season at KU, Melvin has had quite the up-and-down career. The junior started all 26 of the team’s games her freshman year, but got the starting nod just 12 times last season after falling out of favor a bit with Coach Malouf. Melvin’s strength is to make explosive plays by driving to the net, but that strength has also been her downfall as more-and-more of her possessions have turned into turnovers. Melvin actually turned the ball over 16 less times last season, but in about 100 less minutes of action. Melvin still has a chance to make an impact in what is becoming a crowded backcourt, but she will need to turn down the turnovers and make smarter plays when she gets possession of the ball. Furthermore, she was just 3-of-21 from long range and saw a drastic drop in steals. Melvin should be better in her third year, but she will need to improve in several areas to get back her starting job.

Katie Dovey – Junior forward

A rebounding specialist, Dovey is going to be a player to watch in 2008-09. She has seen a slight increase in her minutes over her first two seasons at KU and, with the departures of forwards Mercedes Van Wagner, Molly Brown, Claire Sitarz, and Lisi Reyna, will be expected to contribute in an even larger role in the front court this season. She plays an aggressive game and is one of those players that you can tell is giving you 110% on every possession. Her 3.3 rebounds per game might not seem like much, but it was fourth best on the team last season.

Chauntelle Schroeder – Junior Center

With Van Wagner, Brown, and Sitarz out of the picture, the only remaining center from last season’s roster is the one they call “Canada”. Schroeder will be pressed hard by freshman Hannah Mertz for playing time, but the junior’s experience should give her the leg up on the starting job. That said, coach Malouf loves to start freshmen and that could be bad news for Schroeder. The junior proved she can make an impact last season when she was arguably the team’s best player on a per-minute basis. In 83 minutes of action, Schroeder scored an impressive 47 points, hauled in 30 rebounds, and shot 50% from the floor. In one game (against PSAC East powerhouse Millersville) she scored 13 points in just eight minutes of work. Where she loses favor with Malouf is in the turnover and personal foul department. Is she erratic? Yes. But, does she get the job done in the lane? Absolutely. Think Trish Dudeck, but bigger. The starting center job should be Schroeder’s to lose.

Meredith Starr – Sophomore Point Guard

I’ll admit I was a bit hard on Starr last season, but darn it, I wanted her to score on every possession so I could dig into my arsenal of “Starr” jokes. Anyways, the sophomore point guard appeared in all 27 of KU’s games, starting 22, which might seem like a ton, especially for a point guard, but that is nothing new for a Janet Malouf team. Starr played just over 25 minutes a game in her rookie season, second on the team to only Van Wagner. She proved last season that she is best utilized as a pass-first point guard. She shot just 25% from the field, but managed to dish out 69 assists. Her 60 turnovers and 43 personal fouls were a bit high and something she will improve on with experience. It is expected that Starr will see plenty of playing time at point guard in her sophomore season.

Melissa McQuade – Sophomore Forward

Someone please explain to me how McQuade [Pictured] was not the PSAC East Rookie of the Year last season? I don’t get it. Compared to the winner, West Chester’s Megan Stewart, McQuade played over 100 more minutes, scored 80 more points, hauled in over 100 more rebounds, had a better shooting percentage, hit more three pointers, and led her team in scoring. Stewart beat her in steals and assists. Big deal. Okay, now that you’re convinced McQuade is the best second year player in the PSAC East, I can begin.
McQuade will enter her sophomore season as the starting power forward and is the favorite to lead the team in both scoring and rebounding. She shot just over 40% in her rookie year, averaging 9.9 PPG, a number that is expected to improve in 2008-09. Think you can stop her inside game? No big deal. McQuade hit 32 three pointers last season and managed to shoot 34% from beyond the arc. The team plays better when the ball is in her hands and coach Malouf should be doing everything in her power to revolve the offense around her best player. McQuade has ‘First Team All-PSAC East’ written all over her and there’s no reason to expect anything less.

Newcomers this season:

Vanina Bonanno (Guard) – Vanina Bonanno. That’s fun to say. Brought in from New Jersey, Bonanno is a proven contributor (15 pts/5 rebs per game her senior season) and likely will see minutes in the backcourt this season. As put by Bergen County, New Jersey’s The Record on March 25th, 2007 following her junior year: “Bonanno is a sharpshooter who averaged 12 points per game and can score from the perimeter or drive to the basket.”

Linzie Stahl (Guard) – Stahl will work from the 2 and 3 position. She won several defensive awards during her high school career, but will need to work off some rust after missing a majority of her senior season with a torn ACL.

Cecily Scavicchio (Guard) – A high school shooting guard, Scavicchio impressed Coach Malouf earlier this fall and will be on the roster. [Pictured to the right - www.rizzoproduction.com]

Brittany LeVan (Forward) – A 1,000-point scoring center in high school, LeVan will spend her college career playing the 3 and 4 spot. Plus, I’m a fan of anyone who names her pets Diamond, Strawberry, and Champagne.

Brittany Greaves (Forward/Center) – There is playing time to be had in the front court. Greaves can shoot the ball from the perimeter and has experience playing the three position, but will play four or five for the Golden Bears.

Hannah Mertz (Center) – Another Jersey girl, Mertz played both the four and five position in high school and will be expected to make a contribution to the KU frontcourt as a freshman. At 6’1”, she will battle Schroeder for the starting center job this fall.

Subtractions:

Center Mercedes Van Wagner (Graduation)
Guard/Forward Rachel Weidensaul (Graduation)
Center Molly Brown (Graduation)
Center Claire Sitarz (Personal)
Forward Lisi Reyna (Personal)
Guard Britt Percich (transfer – DIII York College)


More and more and more to come…

Loss overshadows Senior Day

East Stroudsburg Warriors 83
Kutztown Golden Bears 72

Recap:
Despite already knowing they were eliminated from the PSAC playoff race, the women’s basketball team gave it their all in the team’s regular season finale. Unfortunately for them, playoff-bound East Stroudsburg played an outstanding game and was able to come away with the 11 point victory.

Key Stat:
838. The game was meaningless with both team’s postseason fates already set, so why not focus on some history. Mercedes Van Wagner will one day be a member of the Kutztown University Hall of Fame and she added to her already outstanding resume today. In her last game as a Golden Bear, the senior center hauled in 11 rebounds to give her 838 for her career, a new KU career record. She is also KU’s all time block leader and one of 11 ladies to score 1,000 career points.

Key Moment:
As much as I’d like to ignore the disappointing end to the season and focus on the positives, the moment of the game that really turned the tables was pretty clear. KU trailed by 20 with 9:16 left in the game before they went on an 8-0 run that stole them the game’s momentum and got them to within 12 with 7:00 to play. Right when it seemed like the Golden Bears were about to wheel in the Warriors, a timeout was called. It is officially listed as a media timeout, but the referee appeared to gesture as though KU coach Janet Malouf called for it. Regardless of who called it, the timeout proved to be costly as ESU came out of the timeout strong with a 5-0 run that put the game away for good.

Golden Performance:
As mentioned, Van Wagner was stellar, hauling in 11 rebounds. She also scored 12 points, which marks yet another double-double, one of dozens in her successful career at KU. Van Wagner was 6-of-6 from the free throw line and also recorded a steal and block. She will be missed.

Not-So-Golden Performance:
No one on KU played a particularly poor game, so there aren’t many negatives to point out in that regard. The most disappointing thing about the game to me was the fact that Molly Brown played just 8 minutes. Playing in her final game, the senior center managed 3 boards and 4 points on 1-of-4 shooting. It was unfortunate that coach Malouf didn’t allow her more minutes, especially since it was a meaningless game. Brown struggled with injuries throughout her four-year career and never saw consistent minutes because of that. However, she stuck with it and has done a decent job off the bench for KU when she has been healthy. It was really upsetting to me to not see her play more than 8 minutes. Even though they are both centers, Van Wagner and Brown certainly could’ve played at the same time, similar to how they did last year.

Impact:
ESU will head off to Millersville for the playoffs, while the Golden Bears will begin planning for 2008-09. KU will lose Mercedes Van Wagner, Rachel Weidensaul, and Molly Brown to graduation, so they will need to find a way to replace that size. Rachel Wisemiller will likely step into the starting lineup for Weidensaul and Coach Malouf apparently has at least two freshman forwards set to step into significant playing time. Chauntelle Schroeder and Claire Sitarz will also be expected to step into significant minutes in the front court in an attempt to replace the production of Van Wagner. KU will return 3 starters in Meredith Starr, Lara Dellegrotti, and Melissa McQuade. McQuade was superb as a freshman and will be expected to be the top scoring threat for KU in 2008-09. Dellegrotti will enter her senior season looking to carry the torch in the back court and will be counted on to distribute the basketball and hit three point buckets. Starr did a decent job handling the ball as a freshman and will need to improve in her sophomore campaign. Wisemiller, Melvin, and Dovey will also likely be big parts of the KU rotation next year.

The Golden Bears finish the season with an 11-16 overall record. They went 4-8 in the PSAC East, the worst divisional mark put up by a Janet Malouf team since her arrival in 1994-95. In Malouf’s first eight years at KU, her team’s posted a 64-32 record against PSAC East opponents. Since that point, KU has gone 32-40 over her last six years.

2006-07 Women's Basketball - PER Rating

I managed to create an excel spreadsheet that I can use to find out the KU players PER. If you are not familiar with PER, it is an extremely complicated player rating system created by John Hollinger. It is widely known and used as a way to rate NBA players.
My first project was to plug in the women's basketball statistics from last season (2006-07). Here are the results:
1. Mercedes Van Wagner - 25.00
2. Jess Brady - 17.98
3. Claire Sitarz - 16.59
4. Molly Brown - 16.08
5. Amanda Jennings - 15.61
6. Rachel Wisemiller - 15.07
7. Katie Harlor - 14.33
8. Rachel Weidensaul - 13.88
9. Lara Dellegrotti - 13.54
10. Amanda Giannotti - 12.05
11. Vivian Melvin - 11.92
12. Katie Dovey - 11.52
13. Kelley Healey - 7.50
14. C. Schroeder - 4.18
15. Jenn Loprete - 4.01
16. Laura Petriello - 3.72
17. Shir Suez - 0.00

What I've learned from my formula and from PER is that size is a big factor in women's basketball. Have you noticed how centers and forwards rate convincingly better than guards? It's science my friend.

I'll continue plugging stats into PER and have some results on the men and women next week.

Ladies look for revenge against ESU

What: East Stroudsburg Warriors @ Kutztown Golden Bears
When: Saturday, March 1, 2008 @ 1 p.m.
Where: Keystone Hall on the campus of Kutztown University

When the Kutztown Golden Bears face off with the East Stroudsburg Warriors on Saturday, it will be a meaningless game with both teams’ postseason fates already determined…or will it?

KU will be taking on the team that barely beat them out for this season’s fourth and final PSAC East playoff spot. The Warriors (5-6) beat Mansfield on Wednesday night, which clinched them the fourth seed, thus eliminating the Golden Bears (4-7). KU could try to exact some revenge on Saturday afternoon.

The Golden Bears enter the game 11-15 overall this season and will miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season. KU is coming off a 72-59 loss at Cheyney (7-5) this past Saturday and has lost five of its last seven games. This will be the team’s season finale.

The Warriors, meanwhile, will be looking to build some momentum for their first round playoff bout with Millersville (11-0). ESU cannot improve it’s standing in the division, but will likely not back down with a tough challenge ahead of them the following Tuesday. The Warriors are coming off Wednesday’s 64-44 shellacking of Mansfield, but have lost six of their last nine games.

The teams first met this season on Feb. 2 with ESU defending its home court by a score of 67-59. Melissa McQuade carried the KU offense with 20 points and 11 boards. ESU had three scorers reach double-digits, with Kristen Murray scoring 17, Jackie Yandrisevits notching 15, and Monika Fogelsanger dropping 11.

Probable Starters:

East Stroudsburg:
F- # 45 – Monika Fogelsanger
G- #11 – Keri Cahill
G- #20 – Mel Villano
G- # 32 – DeAnna Rayam
G- # 43 – Jackie Yandrisevits

Kutztown:
C- # 53 – Mercedes Van Wagner
F- # 23 – Melissa McQuade
F- # 15 – Rachel Weidensaul
G- # 13 – Meredith Starr
G- # 5 – Lara Dellegrotti

Scouting Report:

The Golden Bears have failed to play consistent basketball down the stretch, thus costing them an opportunity to play postseason basketball. They will look to find some of that consistency and to build for the 2008-09 season in this game.

The seniors (Van Wagner, Weidensaul, Molly Brown) will likely see significant action with the team already eliminated. With that said, don’t expect KU to lay back and let the Warriors run all over them. The Golden Bears should be motivated to knock off the team who beat them out for the final playoff spot. KU has the talent to do it, starting in the frontcourt.

The Warriors will see a lot of Van Wagner and McQuade, both who have double-double potential in the paint. If they struggle, Coach Janet Malouf will look to leading scorer Weidensaul or to guards Lara Dellegrotti and Rachel Wisemiller, who has been stellar as of late.

Meanwhile, the ESU front court is not so shabby, with Fogelsanger and Yandrisevits working the inside. Yandrisevits generally leads the team in scoring, but this is far from a one woman team. Murray, Fogelsanger, and Rayam each average over 8.5 points per game and any one of them can go off for 20 at any given time.

The Golden Bears will have their hands full on both ends off the court, much like the first meeting, but KU does have similar (if not more) talent than the Warriors and could easy take care of business in their season finale.

Prediction:

The games that don’t really mean anything are the hardest ones to predict. Will KU come out motivated to knock off bitter rival ESU? Or will they come out downtrodden and unmotivated after being eliminated from the playoff picture?

Personally, I can’t see it going over too well with the seniors on this team if they fall in their last game at Kutztown. Expect Van Wagner to be as motivated as ever with nothing to lose in her final game. Only one of 11 1,000 point scorers in school history, she has been a treat to watch for the last four years and isn’t about to disappoint with the end of the line in plain view.

McQuade, Wisemiller, Brown, and Weidensaul (yes, in that order) will all add in enough scoring to lead KU to a slim season finale victory.

East Stroudsburg 61
Kutztown 62

Loss jeopardizes ladies' playoff chances

Kutztown Golden Bears 59
Cheyney Wolves 72

Recap:
The ladies hung in the game for over three quarters, but in the end, they could not overcome Danielle Jones and the playoff-bound Cheyney Wolves. KU fell behind 18-6 in the early stages, but fought back and actually led at points in the second half. As has been the case throughout the 2007-08 season, however, the Golden Bears were unable to pull off the win, likely costing themselves a playoff berth for the second consecutive season.

Key Stat:
The Golden Bears actually outshot the Wolves from the field, but their three point shooting was awful. KU was just 1-of-13 from beyond the arc, while Cheyney was much more impressive at 8-of-14 in the trifecta department.

Key Moment:
KU trailed by just 7 points with 2:27 to play and still had an opportunity to make a comeback. From there, Lutfiyya Muhammad nailed two free throws, Danielle Jones stole the ball twice and scored 6 points, Muhammad hit two more from the charity stripe, and Tamika McFadden hit a free throw to complete the game’s scoring.

Golden Performance:
I almost feel like I should give this award to Cheyney’s Jones, because, like her or not, she was on fire in the final minutes of the game, all-but-single-handily finishing off the Golden Bears. With that said, I like to focus on KU during these articles and Rachel Wisemiller was a huge contributor for coach Malouf. Wisemiller came off the bench and played 28 minutes, scoring a career-high 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting from the field. She also had 3 assists, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals. She is also listed as having 6 turnovers, but that is a scoring error…so ignore that.

Not-So-Golden Performance:
With the exception of Wisemiller, the KU guards struggled mightily throughout the contest. Lara Dellegrotti, Meredith Starr, and Vivian Melvin combined to hit just one of 14 shots for a grand total of 6 points. They also combined to commit 10 fouls and committed at least 8 turnovers. If anything, Dellegrotti did manage an impressive 8 assists. Runner up for this award is the persistent technical issues during the early stages of the second half. There were 2 long delays as the staff tried to correct issues with the scoreboard and shot clock. But, hey, at least we had entertainment. Cope Hall turned into Saturday night at Shorty’s for a while there…you know…except without the good music.

Side Thought:
Where on earth was Katie Dovey and Chauntelle Schroeder? Schroeder is coming off a 13 point game (in 8 minutes), while Dovey has been playing well in limited action. Combined they played 0 minutes. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand.

Impact:
Mid-game dance party aside, it was not a happy day for the Kutztown Golden Bears. They fall to 4-7 in the PSAC East and 11-15 overall and need some help if they hope to be playoff bound. Mansfield (1-9) needs to upset East Stroudsburg (4-6) on Wednesday and then KU needs to beat ESU on Saturday. If that happens, KU will be playoff bound, likely for a matchup at Millersville (10-0). If not, the Golden Bears are eliminated.

Ladies look for revenge at Cheyney

What: Kutztown Golden Bears @ Cheyney Wolves
When: Saturday, February 23, 2008 @ 1 p.m.
Where: Cope Hall on the campus of Cheyney University

The Golden Bears head into Saturday’s matchup with Cheyney in need of a victory if they hope to qualify for the PSAC playoffs. KU is 4-6 in the division and currently trails East Stroudsburg by one-half game for the final playoff spot (See Playoff Picture).

The Golden Bears have won two of their last three games, but are coming off Wednesday’s 13 point loss to division-leading Millersville (9-0).

The Wolves have already clinched a postseason berth, meaning this season will mark their first trip to the playoffs since the 1989-90 season. Cheyney is 6-4 in the division and is playing for an opportunity to host a first round playoff game. The Wolves are coming off a game in which they were shellacked by West Chester 84-52.

These teams last met on Feb. 2, with Cheyney making an improbable comeback in the second half to upset KU by a score of 77-66. The Golden Bears led throughout that game, by double-digits at most points, but collapsed in the final minutes and scored just 2 points in the overtime period.

Probable Starters:
Kutztown:
C- # 53 – Mercedes Van Wagner
F- # 23 – Melissa McQuade
F- # 15 – Rachel Weidensaul
G- # 13 – Meredith Starr
G- # 5 – Lara Dellegrotti

Cheyney:
F- # 15 – Angel Stephens
F- # 32 – Stephanie Orgi
F- # 21 – Lillian Penn
G- # 24 – Ashley Blake
G- # 20 – Danielle Jones

Scouting Report:
The Golden Bears will enter this game looking to continue their gameplan of moving the ball all over creation until they find someone open for a shot. This offensive style has been successful as of late and has resulted in a conference leading 164 assists during divisional play.

The problem with KU’s offensive attack has been a lack of consistency. One player will step up and have a big couple of games and then disappear for the next few. If Coach Malouf can get consistent play from her core of talented athletes, KU can contend with anyone, even Millersville. Sure the Golden Bears were swept by the Marauders this season, but it was episodes of epic collapses during parts of those games that were the difference. At one point or another this season, KU has outplayed every divisional opponent.

Melissa McQuade was outstanding in the team’s first meeting with the Wolves. She had a double-double, scoring 14 points and hauling in 17 rebounds. Three other Golden Bears reached double digits, but KU turned the ball over a whopping 35 times.

The Golden Bears will look to McQuade, as well as, Mercedes Van Wagner to carry the load in this game. Both have been playing better and better as the season goes on and they will need to step up against a respectable front court.

In the last meeting, the three other double-digit scorers for KU were guards (Wisemiller, Melvin, Starr). If the Cheyney defense collapses on the KU frontcourt on Saturday, the guards will once again be relied on to hit jump shots.

As for the KU defense, they will be looking to their front court to shut down the efforts of forwards Angel Stephens (16 points and 14 rebounds in the first meeting) and Stephanie Orgi (12 points, 8 rebounds). Meanwhile, the guards will have their hands full with Danielle Jones, who led all scorers with 18 points in the first meeting and leads Cheyney in scoring.

Prediction:
The Golden Bears had this game won in the last meeting, and there is no reason to doubt them this time around. This team has collapsed late in games on several occasions, but the one against Cheyney was the worst of them and unlikely to be repeated. As for the Wolves, they were on a roll, but they were just smoked by West Chester and you have to believe that experience will play a factor down the stretch. Cheyney is already in the playoffs and KU is more talented with more to play for. It will be tough on the road, but the Golden Bears will pull it out in the end.

Kutztown 67
Cheyney 61

Ladies complete sweep of Huskies

Bloomsburg Huskies 56
Kutztown Golden Bears 76

Recap: The Golden Bears took an early lead and never looked back as they easily handled the Huskies at Keystone Hall on Saturday. KU led by as many as 15 in the first half and extended that to 20 by the final whistle. The Huskies hung in the game early on thanks to a few buckets from leading scorer Colleen Kegerreis, but it wasn’t long before it was clear that KU was the superior team.

Telling Stat: The Golden Bears did not shoot much better than the Huskies in this game, but they did hit 8 three pointers and outrebounded them 47-36. The most significant stat of this affair was a margin of 21-9 in the assist department. KU, tops in the PSAC during conference play in assists, wore down the BU defense by continuing to work the ball around the court until someone was open for a clean look.

Key series: KU appeared to have put the game to bed late in the first half when they led by 15 points. However, the Huskies went on a 6-0 run to cut their deficit to single digits at the break and were within 5 with 17:27 left in the second half. The key series of the day game next as KU answered with a 9-0 run and a stretch in which they outscored the Huskies 20-5. It was started by a Rachel Weidensaul jumper and continued with two layups and a free throw from Mercedes Van Wagner. Vivian Melvin completed the 9 point swing with a layup.

Most Valuable Golden Bear: Van Wagner was a monster on the boards (8 points, 13 boards), but the athlete who seemed to make the big shots and took the air out of every BU run was Rachel Wisemiller. The sophomore scored a team-high 16 points and was 4-of-5 from beyond the three point arc. She also had 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and a block.

Least Valuable Golden Bear: KU hosted the mascot Olympics yesterday with several local mascots battling it out for mascot supremacy during breaks in the action. This award goes to whoever came up with the idea for that pink, creepy-looking softball team’s mascot. What was that thing?

Impact: The Golden Bears’ win was huge as it propelled them back into the playoff picture. KU currently sits at 4-5 and holds the fourth and final playoff spot in the PSAC East. With the win over BU, KU’s biggest challenge for the final playoff spot will be East Stroudsburg, who trails them by just one-half of a game. Left on the schedule for the Golden Bears are trips to Millersville (8-0) and Cheyney (6-3) before a huge regular season finale at home against ESU (3-5).

Another collapse overshadows 1,000 for Benz

West Chester Golden Rams 67
Kutztown Golden Bears 65

Recap: The Golden Bears blew another game that they lead throughout the day, allowing their opponent to erase a second half deficit for the third straight contest. The collapse put a damper on the performance of Mercedes Van Wagner who led all scorers with 24 points, which included the 1,000 point of her career. KU, who led by as many as 10 in the first half, went with a different look for much of the game, with Katie Dovey, Rachel Wisemiller, and Vivian Melvin replacing Mercedes Van Wagner, Rachel Weidensaul, and Lara Dellegrotti in the starting lineup. Van Wagner saw regular minutes, while Dellegrotti played just 10 minutes and leading-scorer Weidensaul sat out the entire first half before playing over half of the second. The removal of the three stars from the starting lineup was reportedly due to late arrival at the arena.

Telling Stat: The Golden Rams stole the ball 15 times, which accounting for a majority of the Golden Bears’ 22 turnovers. KU didn’t do an awful job protecting the ball, but the aggressiveness and speed of the Golden Rams allowed them to make the big plays when it counted most.

Key play: With KU up by one point with 28 seconds to play, WCU’s Natalie Winters missed a three pointer that was rebounded by Meredith Starr. This should have significantly improved KU’s chance of winning the game, but the freshman didn’t know what to do with the ball and couldn’t find a teammate to dish the ball to. Megan Stewart stepped in, ripped the ball out of her hands, and laid the ball in for an easy bucket, which gave the Rams the lead and, in turn, the win.

Most Valuable Golden Bear: Van Wagner was the star of the day, but how about rarely-used sophomore Chauntelle Schroeder. She stepped into the game with Melissa McQuade in foul trouble and made her presence felt in only 2 minutes of work. Schroeder was 2-of-3 from the floor for 5 points, hauled in 3 rebounds, and recorded a steal.

Least Valuable Golden Bear: Vivian Melvin has had her problems throughout the past few weeks, but Saturday was certainly one of her worst efforts. The sophomore was 1-of-6 from the floor, notching just two points in an astounding 33 minutes of work. Melvin turned the ball over 7 times, but did help the KU cause with 2 steals and 4 assists.

Impact: This loss is probably more devastating mentally than actually. Kutztown is certainly still in the PSAC playoff race, but I’m not sure how the players can continue to bounce back after falling apart down the stretch game after game. If the Golden Bears can manage to win 3-4 of their final 6 games, they should be playoff bound. Currently they sit at 2-5, one-and-one-half game back of East Stroudsburg (3-3) for the fourth and final PSAC East playoff spot.

Wait…Cheyney beat who?

What: Women’s Basketball Action: Cheyney Wolves vs. Kutztown Golden Bears
When: Saturday February 2, 2008
Where: Kutztown’s Keystone Hall

The Cheyney Lady Wolves are in town this weekend. Typically that means and easy win for Kutztown, but that is far from the case in 2008.

Despite a 1-9 start to what seemed like the same old dismal season, the Wolves have now won four of eight games and are sitting at 2-3 in the division, one-half game behind KU for the fourth and final PSAC playoff spot. One of their two wins was over perennial Eastern conference powerhouse West Chester, who was fresh off a 68-56 shellacking of KU. On Wednesday they fell to division-leading Millersville by just 5 points.

The win over WCU proves that Cheyney is for real this year and will be no pushover for the Golden Bears. This, of course, is despite the fact that KU has beat them 29 straight times. KU won last seasons matchups by scores of 73-64 and 64-53.

Cheyney is led by senior guard Danielle Jones and sophomore forward Stephanie ‘is this safe to say on the air’ Orgi. Jones leads the team in scoring with 10.1 PPG and is an 85% free throw shooter. Orji is the inside presence for the Wolves, averaging 7.7 PPG, while leading the team in steals (50), and blocks (20).

Other likely starters for Cheyney include senior forward Lillian Penn (7.8 PPG), sophomore forward Angel Stephens (47.3 FG%, 7.6 RPG), and senior guard Ashley Blake (36 assists).

Cheyney has won games by making strides in the paint. The Wolves lead the PSAC in conference play in steals and offensive rebounding. KU will need to counter with a big day from senior center Mercedes Van Wagner if they hope to make it 30 straight wins.

Van Wagner has been inconsistent this season, but is generally a forced to be reckoned with when divisional play kicks off. With that said, following back-to-back double doubles against Mansfield and West Chester, she has been held to 3-of-14 shooting for a total of 10 points and 7 rebounds in the last two games. Without a bounce back by Van Wagner, KU will have issues in the paint.

KU will lean heavily on senior guard Rachel Weidnesaul. She has been on a tear as of late, scoring at least 20 points in three straight games. She currently leads the PSAC East in inter-divisional play scoring.

Joining Van Wagner on the list of players who need a big rebound game is freshman forward Melissa McQuade. The rookie has had her share of consistency issues, but when she is in the zone, she is hard to stop. Following 4 straight double-digit scoring days, McQuade has stumbled to a combined 11 points over the last 3 games.

Freshman guard Meredith Starr and junior guard Lara Dellegrotti will fill out KU’s starting lineup. Starr has done a respectable job handling the ball and filling the role of an assist-happy point guard. Dellegrotti has had another injury-plagued season, but can light up the scoreboard when she gets opportunities to shoot.

Key off the bench will be playmaker Vivian Melvin and consistent contributor Rachel Wisemiller. Coach Janet Malouf will also look to either Claire Sitarz or Molly Brown to relieve Van Wagner at center, while Katie Dovey and Lisi Reyna could also see some work at small/power forward.

In summary, KU will need to be sharp, especially early on, against a rejuvenated and confident Cheyney team. A loss here could be devastating to the Lady Bears playoff chances, where as a win would push them to 3-2 and into the driver’s seat for a chance to play in March.

Prediction:

Kutztown is coming off a solid win against a poor Bloomsburg team and will come out sharp, frustrating a confident, but less talented Cheyney team. KU’s stifling defense will force too many poor shots by the Wolves and KU will sneak away with a 7 point win.

Kutztown 61, Cheyney 54.

Sitarz, Dovey shine in Clay Rating System

I’ve been developing my own rating system for basketball players and I’ve spent quite a bit of time applying it to the KU women’s teams from the last few years. It does rival the Hollinger Player Index, but my formula takes a few more things into consideration. Unfortunately for me, stats like plus/minus are not available for division II basketball, so my progress will be limited.

With that said, I’ve developed a formula that focuses on per-minute production. The big pro to such a method is that it places players who play significant minutes on an even playing field with those who play in limited action. The obvious con here, however, is that a player who comes out and grabs 3 boards and scores 6 points in 5 minutes of mop up work will have a significantly inflated score. The only cure for that is to manually weed out the players who rarely play in key situations. If you’ve seen a few games, this is easy to do.

Here are the ratings for the 2007-08 Lady Bears as of January 30, 2008.

1. Weidensaul 33.3
2. Sitarz 30.3
3. McQuade 29.6
4. Van Wagner 26.3
5. Dovey 26.0
6. Wisemiller 22.7
7. Dellegrotti 19.6
8. Melvin 16.2
9. Schroeder 14.6
10. Reyna 14.0
11. Starr 12.0
12. Brown 7.8
13. Percich 5.1
14. Petriello -9.9

The only two players I would consider to have inflated ratings would be Schroeder and Petriello. Schroeder has seen little action and Petriello is no longer on the team.

If you’ve seen a few games, you are probably not surprised to see names like Weidensaul and McQuade at the top of this list. However, names such as Sitarz (pictured)and Dovey might be shocking. Neither of them sees significant action, but both make quite an impact when they do. Sitarz has scored, rebounded, and caused problems for opposing offenses in the lane. Dovey might be the most fearless player on the KU roster and is an absolute machine on the boards.

So, now you’re probably thinking: Are you saying Sitarz should be seeing more minutes than everyone except Weidensaul? Not necessarily. As coach Malouf was quick to point out when we discussed this type of formula, it fails to take into consideration intangibles such as hustle, discipline, consistency, awareness, etc. Sure the production is there, but this formula is not perfect. Watching a team practice or play a game every day might be enough to evaluate talent for some. This rating system is meant to be used as a tool to help support what you might already know and maybe bring to light something you may have been missing.

What does the formula mean to me? Well, the reason I even decided to formulate it was because I noticed the impact Sitarz and Dovey were making despite limited work. In my opinion, both need to see more action. Van Wagner and McQuade block them from significant minutes, but it can’t hurt to give them extra rest when you have playmakers riding the bench.

As you might imagine, there will be plenty more on this topic later. Comment below.