2006-07 Women's Basketball - PER Rating

I managed to create an excel spreadsheet that I can use to find out the KU players PER. If you are not familiar with PER, it is an extremely complicated player rating system created by John Hollinger. It is widely known and used as a way to rate NBA players.
My first project was to plug in the women's basketball statistics from last season (2006-07). Here are the results:
1. Mercedes Van Wagner - 25.00
2. Jess Brady - 17.98
3. Claire Sitarz - 16.59
4. Molly Brown - 16.08
5. Amanda Jennings - 15.61
6. Rachel Wisemiller - 15.07
7. Katie Harlor - 14.33
8. Rachel Weidensaul - 13.88
9. Lara Dellegrotti - 13.54
10. Amanda Giannotti - 12.05
11. Vivian Melvin - 11.92
12. Katie Dovey - 11.52
13. Kelley Healey - 7.50
14. C. Schroeder - 4.18
15. Jenn Loprete - 4.01
16. Laura Petriello - 3.72
17. Shir Suez - 0.00

What I've learned from my formula and from PER is that size is a big factor in women's basketball. Have you noticed how centers and forwards rate convincingly better than guards? It's science my friend.

I'll continue plugging stats into PER and have some results on the men and women next week.

Wait…Cheyney beat who?

What: Women’s Basketball Action: Cheyney Wolves vs. Kutztown Golden Bears
When: Saturday February 2, 2008
Where: Kutztown’s Keystone Hall

The Cheyney Lady Wolves are in town this weekend. Typically that means and easy win for Kutztown, but that is far from the case in 2008.

Despite a 1-9 start to what seemed like the same old dismal season, the Wolves have now won four of eight games and are sitting at 2-3 in the division, one-half game behind KU for the fourth and final PSAC playoff spot. One of their two wins was over perennial Eastern conference powerhouse West Chester, who was fresh off a 68-56 shellacking of KU. On Wednesday they fell to division-leading Millersville by just 5 points.

The win over WCU proves that Cheyney is for real this year and will be no pushover for the Golden Bears. This, of course, is despite the fact that KU has beat them 29 straight times. KU won last seasons matchups by scores of 73-64 and 64-53.

Cheyney is led by senior guard Danielle Jones and sophomore forward Stephanie ‘is this safe to say on the air’ Orgi. Jones leads the team in scoring with 10.1 PPG and is an 85% free throw shooter. Orji is the inside presence for the Wolves, averaging 7.7 PPG, while leading the team in steals (50), and blocks (20).

Other likely starters for Cheyney include senior forward Lillian Penn (7.8 PPG), sophomore forward Angel Stephens (47.3 FG%, 7.6 RPG), and senior guard Ashley Blake (36 assists).

Cheyney has won games by making strides in the paint. The Wolves lead the PSAC in conference play in steals and offensive rebounding. KU will need to counter with a big day from senior center Mercedes Van Wagner if they hope to make it 30 straight wins.

Van Wagner has been inconsistent this season, but is generally a forced to be reckoned with when divisional play kicks off. With that said, following back-to-back double doubles against Mansfield and West Chester, she has been held to 3-of-14 shooting for a total of 10 points and 7 rebounds in the last two games. Without a bounce back by Van Wagner, KU will have issues in the paint.

KU will lean heavily on senior guard Rachel Weidnesaul. She has been on a tear as of late, scoring at least 20 points in three straight games. She currently leads the PSAC East in inter-divisional play scoring.

Joining Van Wagner on the list of players who need a big rebound game is freshman forward Melissa McQuade. The rookie has had her share of consistency issues, but when she is in the zone, she is hard to stop. Following 4 straight double-digit scoring days, McQuade has stumbled to a combined 11 points over the last 3 games.

Freshman guard Meredith Starr and junior guard Lara Dellegrotti will fill out KU’s starting lineup. Starr has done a respectable job handling the ball and filling the role of an assist-happy point guard. Dellegrotti has had another injury-plagued season, but can light up the scoreboard when she gets opportunities to shoot.

Key off the bench will be playmaker Vivian Melvin and consistent contributor Rachel Wisemiller. Coach Janet Malouf will also look to either Claire Sitarz or Molly Brown to relieve Van Wagner at center, while Katie Dovey and Lisi Reyna could also see some work at small/power forward.

In summary, KU will need to be sharp, especially early on, against a rejuvenated and confident Cheyney team. A loss here could be devastating to the Lady Bears playoff chances, where as a win would push them to 3-2 and into the driver’s seat for a chance to play in March.

Prediction:

Kutztown is coming off a solid win against a poor Bloomsburg team and will come out sharp, frustrating a confident, but less talented Cheyney team. KU’s stifling defense will force too many poor shots by the Wolves and KU will sneak away with a 7 point win.

Kutztown 61, Cheyney 54.

Sitarz, Dovey shine in Clay Rating System

I’ve been developing my own rating system for basketball players and I’ve spent quite a bit of time applying it to the KU women’s teams from the last few years. It does rival the Hollinger Player Index, but my formula takes a few more things into consideration. Unfortunately for me, stats like plus/minus are not available for division II basketball, so my progress will be limited.

With that said, I’ve developed a formula that focuses on per-minute production. The big pro to such a method is that it places players who play significant minutes on an even playing field with those who play in limited action. The obvious con here, however, is that a player who comes out and grabs 3 boards and scores 6 points in 5 minutes of mop up work will have a significantly inflated score. The only cure for that is to manually weed out the players who rarely play in key situations. If you’ve seen a few games, this is easy to do.

Here are the ratings for the 2007-08 Lady Bears as of January 30, 2008.

1. Weidensaul 33.3
2. Sitarz 30.3
3. McQuade 29.6
4. Van Wagner 26.3
5. Dovey 26.0
6. Wisemiller 22.7
7. Dellegrotti 19.6
8. Melvin 16.2
9. Schroeder 14.6
10. Reyna 14.0
11. Starr 12.0
12. Brown 7.8
13. Percich 5.1
14. Petriello -9.9

The only two players I would consider to have inflated ratings would be Schroeder and Petriello. Schroeder has seen little action and Petriello is no longer on the team.

If you’ve seen a few games, you are probably not surprised to see names like Weidensaul and McQuade at the top of this list. However, names such as Sitarz (pictured)and Dovey might be shocking. Neither of them sees significant action, but both make quite an impact when they do. Sitarz has scored, rebounded, and caused problems for opposing offenses in the lane. Dovey might be the most fearless player on the KU roster and is an absolute machine on the boards.

So, now you’re probably thinking: Are you saying Sitarz should be seeing more minutes than everyone except Weidensaul? Not necessarily. As coach Malouf was quick to point out when we discussed this type of formula, it fails to take into consideration intangibles such as hustle, discipline, consistency, awareness, etc. Sure the production is there, but this formula is not perfect. Watching a team practice or play a game every day might be enough to evaluate talent for some. This rating system is meant to be used as a tool to help support what you might already know and maybe bring to light something you may have been missing.

What does the formula mean to me? Well, the reason I even decided to formulate it was because I noticed the impact Sitarz and Dovey were making despite limited work. In my opinion, both need to see more action. Van Wagner and McQuade block them from significant minutes, but it can’t hurt to give them extra rest when you have playmakers riding the bench.

As you might imagine, there will be plenty more on this topic later. Comment below.