Lady Bears Production Rankings

It’s time to have some fun with numbers.

In my possession are the statistics from each women’s basketball player from the 1980-81 season through the 2007-08 season. Unfortunately, minutes were not tracked by the KU Athletic department until the 1992-93 season, so my study will be using all player data from the 92-93 season through the 2007-08 campaign.

What I did was determine the most efficient players on a per-minute basis at several statistical categories. I removed any player who played less than 100 minutes in a particular season. The reason for this is to avoid a player making the list who, for example, played one minute in 1998 and had a steal, which would put that player at the top of the list.

Each category will have a player’s name followed by the notable season, which will be followed by the per-minute production. (eg. A ‘.104’ in the assist category means that player notched ‘.104’ assists per minute that season)

Points:
1. Janelle Needham 94-95: 1.209
2. Keri Suydam 99-00: .537
3. Robin Avery 94-95: .530
4. Hillary Worley 00-01: .526
5. Danielle Warntz 00-01: .515

Comment: Needham was second on the 94-95 team in scoring despite playing about a quarter of the minutes of the starters.

Three point baskets:
1. Danielle Warntz 00-01: .129
2. Danielle Warntz 01-02: .100
3. Amanda Zinobile 01-02: .080
4. Kelly Barger 92-93: .080
5. Danielle Warntz 03-04: .073

Comment: You can probably guess who is sixth on this list. Warntz loved to shoot from beyond the arc and is KU’s all time leader in three pointers made.

Free throws made:
1. Janelle Needham 94-95: .242
2. Jennifer Coss 95-96: .160
3. Brianne Homyak 98-99: .138
4. Becky Savage 01-02: .134
5. Trish Dudeck 04-05: .132

Comment: How did Needham score so much in so little time, you ask? Check the free throw line for the answer. Homyak is second all time in made free throws.

Rebounding:
1. Monique Boykins 05-06: .403
2. Monique Boykins 03-04: .364
3. Monique Boykins 02-03: .359
4. Keri Suydam 98-99: .342
5. Monique Boykins 04-05: .338

Comment: This one isn’t too exciting. “Mo” was a monster on the boards and one of KU’s all-time leading rebounders. Career KU rebound leader Mercedes Van Wagner’s four seasons rank eighth, tenth, seventh, and eleventh, respectively.

Personal Fouls (ability to avoid fouls):
1. Courtney Robinson 00-01: .014
2. Amanda Zinobile 02-03: .034
3. Patti Kline 98-99: .036
4. Janelle Needham 96-97: .037
5. Janelle Needham 95-96: .038

Comment: It’s much easier to score when you’re not sitting on the bench in foul trouble. Zinobile and Needham both played over 900 minutes during the 02-03 and 96-97 seasons, respectively.

Assists:
1. Janelle Needham 94-95: .256
2. Angie Holland 99-00: .168
3. Megan Bainbridge 05-06: .161
4. Jessica Pieczynski 02-03: .161
5. Amy Wahl 98-99: .151

Comment: Needham sure did it all her sophomore season, eh? Bainbridge was on pace to break Wahl’s career assist record, but only played for three seasons.

Turnovers (ability to protect the ball):
1. Lisi Reyna 07-08: .050
2. Molly Brown 06-07: .053
3. Katie Harlor 05-06: .054
4. Casey Reath 00-01: .054
5. Janelle Needham 96-97: .056

Comment: Lisi Reyna must seem pretty random, but it is no fluke. She protected the ball well in her time at KU.

Blocks:
1. Sophia Vucetaj 01-02: .105
2. Monique Boykins 03-04: .096
3. Mercedes Van Wagner 07-08: .095
4. Mercedes Van Wagner 05-06: .078
5. Becky Savage 02-03: .072

Comment: Like in the rebounding department, Van Wagner and Boykins are the dominant parties here. Savage’s 02-03 season mark of 68 blocks is a KU single-season record.

Steals:
1. Janelle Needham 94-95: .137
2. Amy Wahl 95-96: .106
3. Jen Wabby 95-96: .103
4. Amy Wahl 96-97: .099
5. Amy Wahl 97-98: .085

Comment: Wahl is KU’s career leader in steals.


In closing, was Needham’s 94-95 campaign the best season in KU history that nobody knows about? It sure seems like it. Simply looking at the stats from each season would do her no justice, but checking up on each player’s per-minute production really shows who makes the most of their time on the floor.

This seems like more than enough for one post, but if you’re wondering about a particular player, season, or category, let me know and I’ll do what I can for you.

PSAC Realignment

There will be a new look to the PSAC this season with the addition of several new schools to the conference. Here is a look at the new division alignment in the projected finishing order as voted on by the PSAC coaches. You will notice that Shippensburg has moved from the PSAC West to the PSAC East and Mercyhurst and Gannon were added to the PSAC West.

Women’s Basketball:
East:
1. Shippensburg
2. Millersville
3. West Chester
4. Kutztown
5. East Stroudsburg
6. Bloomsburg
7. Cheyney
8. Mansfield

West:
1. Indiana (Pa.)
2. California (Pa.)
3. Gannon
4. Edinboro
5. Mercyhurst
6. Clarion
7. Lock Haven
8. Slippery Rock

Men’s Basketball:
East:
1. Kutztown
2. Millersville
3. East Stroudsburg
4. Cheyney
5. Mansfield
6. Shippensburg
7. West Chester
8. Bloomsburg

West:
1. Gannon
2. California (Pa.)
3. Edinboro
4. Indiana (Pa.)
5. Mercyhurst
6. Clarion
7. Slippery Rock
8. Lock Haven

A look ahead: 2008-09 Men's Basketball

The 2008-09 Men’s Basketball team will return all of its starters and all but two players from last year’s PSAC contending squad. Here is a look at this year’s team, which should be a serious threat in the conference and could be a regional contender.

Returners:

Andre Woodlin (Senior Guard) – When considering the Golden Bears top scorers, Woodlin [Pictured to the right] might not be the first name that comes to mind. That, of course, is only because he playing on a team with the likes of David Ben and Stephen Dennis. Those two led KU in scoring one year ago, but Woodlin was the most consistent of the three throughout the season and was third on the team in scoring, notching 13.7 points per game. Compared to Ben and Dennis, he had less fouls, less turnovers, a higher shooting percentage, and a better three point shooting percentage. Furthermore, he had a better free throw percentage than Ben and more rebounds than Ben and one less than Dennis. So, while Ben and Dennis are the flashiest of the three, don’t forget about Mr. Woodlin, who will return to the starting lineup for his senior season.

Stephen Dennis (Junior Guard) – A Street & Smith’s pre-season All-American, Dennis [Pictured to the left] will return as KU’s starting point guard in 2008-09. The junior is the team’s leading scorer from one year ago and also paced the team in blocks (yes, blocks) and steals. If you’ve seen him play, you know Dennis is anything but your typical point man. He really can do it all and, when he is in the zone, can basically take over the game and score at will from anywhere on the court. His only weakness seems to be from beyond the arc, where he was just 10-of-54 (18.5%) last season. Dennis should only be better in his third year at KU. Just like a year ago, expect him and Ben to lead the way in scoring.

Steve Coffey (Sophomore Guard) – Coffey was a serviceable backup point guard in his rookie season a year ago and will likely serve the same role this year. He averaged just under nine minutes a game, did a nice job taking care of the ball, and was a very high percentage shooter. With Edwards now officially a redshirt for the 2008-09 season, Coffey will likely play a larger role in the backcourt.

Mike Connolly (Sophomore Guard) – Connolly quickly earned himself a reputation as sharpshooter last season when he entered games unafraid to fire up shots from beyond the arc. The backup shooting guard hit 15 three pointers, fourth best on the team, despite averaging just over 8 minutes a game. Another solid reserve guard, Connolly’s is unlikely to change with the entire backcourt back from last season.

Ryan Nemetz (Sophomore Guard) – Nemetz saw just 27 minutes of work in 2007-08 as a reserve guard and will likely not see significant time again this season with the entire backcourt back.

Dave Ben (Senior Guard/Forward) – One of the best players in the PSAC since his arrival in 2005, Ben [Pictured to the right] will head into his senior season attempting to lead his talented squad of veterans to a PSAC championship. Ben isn’t the best example of consistency, but, when he is hot, there is nobody better in the PSAC (just ask East Stroudsburg what happened on February 6). Ben averaged 17 points per game last season and played more minutes than anyone on the roster. The senior shot over 40 percent from the field, over 30 percent from long range, and 70 percent from the charity stripe. Furthermore, Ben snagged 5.3 rebounds per game, led the team with 88 assists, had 12 blocks, and was third best on the team with 46 steals. His team-high 73 personal fouls and 86 turnovers are partially a product of a ton more playing time than everyone else, but also an indicator of his sometimes erratic play. That said, sometimes erratic can be explosive—and explosive is a great word for Ben’s game. Ben will start, of course, and will once again be one of the most feared players in the PSAC.

Mark Bower (Senior Forward) – A candidate to start at center, Bower will have to unseat the incumbent Jeremy Coombs, who saw a majority of the starts at center one year ago. Regardless of if he starts or not, Bower will see significant minutes off the bench with fellow backup forward Kevin Hafera off to the real world. Bower averaged just under 11 minutes a game last year, so pencil him in for 11 a game this year plus a portion of Hafera’s 14 minutes a game as well.

Ryan Washington (Sophomore Forward) – Washington was a pleasant surprise for head coach Bernie Driscoll last season following the premature departure of center Sean McKeon. A redshirt freshman at the time, Washington stepped into the power forward position and made an impact throughout the entire season. He shot over 51 percent from the floor and averaged just over nine points per game, fifth best on the team. Washington was the team’s leading rebounder, hauling in 7.7 a game. He was second on the team with 38 blocks. Now in his second year of eligibility, Washington will be expected to continue his strong play on the block as the team’s starting power forward.

Jeremy Coombs (Junior Center) – As mentioned, Coombs is the incumbent starting center, but will need a strong preseason to hold off senior center Mark Bower. Coombs had nice chemistry with fellow big man Ryan Washington a season ago, but often gave way to Hafera and Bower after only a few minutes of action. With Hafera gone, Coombs will likely see an increase from the 15 minutes a game he worked a year ago…even if he loses the starting job to Bower.

Newcomers:
Julius Gray (Sophomore Guard) - Junior College transfer
Omar Ford-Bey (Freshman Guard) – Reserve guard. Check him out on Youtube.
Jordan Wenner (Freshman Center) – Reserve center
Ryan White (Freshman Forward) – Reserve forward

Subtractions:

Nate Edwards (Junior Guard) – UPDATE: Edwards was hurt during the summer and will redshirt for the 2008-09 campaign. He will return for his junior season next year. If this were the NBA, Edwards would’ve been a candidate for the “Sixth Man of the Year” award for his contributions off the bench for KU one year ago. Edwards appeared in 25 games, averaging just over 24 minutes a game, and scored just under 11 points per game. A playmaker, Edwards was second on the team in steals and led the team with a three point shooting percentage just above 37 percent. With all five starters back, Edwards would've returned to his role as the team’s sixth man…although he could easily start for just about any other team in the PSAC. He will likely get the opportunity to start next season when Ben and Woodlin graduate.

Forward Kevin Hafera - Graduation

2008-09 Men’s Basketball Roster

Roster (Updated: 12/16/2008)
2008-09 Men’s Basketball team

# - Position – Name (Class)
11 - G - Omar Ford-Bey (Fr)
12 - G - Steve Coffey (r-So)
*14 - G - Stephen Dennis (Jr)
23 - G - Julius Gray (So)
*24 - G - Andre Woodlin (Sr)
32 - G - Chris Vrabel (Fr)
*34 - G - Dave Ben (Sr)
35 - F - Ryan White (Fr)
42 - C - Jordan Wenner (Fr)
*44 - F - Mark Bower (Sr)
*52 - F - Ryan Washington (r-So)
55 - C - Jeremy Coombs (Jr)

*Current Starter

Inactive list:
5 - G - Ryan Nemetz (So) - Left team
20 - G - Mike Connolly (So) - Out for season (Torn Meniscus)
11 - G - Nate Edwards (Jr) - Injury Redshirt

A look ahead: 2008-09 Women's Basketball

Here is an early look at the roster head coach Janet Malouf has assembled for the 2008-09 Women’s Basketball season.

Returning from last season:

Lara Dellegrotti – Senior Point Guard

Dellegrotti will enter her senior season as the favorite to run the point. Arguably the team’s best shooter, Dellegrotti was a team-best 41% shooter from beyond the arc and her pinpoint accuracy from long range will be counted on again in her final season. It is likely she will also see some time at shooting guard when Meredith Starr is in the game. The senior point guard has suffered through a few injuries during her KU career, but still managed to appear in 23 of the team’s 27 games last season and started in 19 of those contests. Expect her to improve her 6.6 PPG from 2007-08, which is well below her capabilities. Coach Malouf traditionally preaches a pass-first mentality to her point guards, which leaves a majority of Dellegrotti’s shots to come from long range. Of Dellegrotti’s 136 shots last season, 76 were three-pointers, 31 of which were good.

Rachel Wisemiller - Junior Shooting Guard

Wisemiller was the closest thing to the team’s “sixth man” last season, and that should make her a front runner for a spot in the starting lineup in 2008-09. Wisemiller was fourth on the team in scoring last year despite starting just three games. Arguably the team’s most efficient shooter, the junior averaged 6.8 PPG, while averaging just over 19 minutes of action a game. Her 43% shooting percentage was second to just Mercedes Van Wagner among regulars. Watch for Wisemiller to break out as one of the team’s go-to scorers in 2008-09.

Vivian Melvin – Junior Shooting Guard

Entering her third season at KU, Melvin has had quite the up-and-down career. The junior started all 26 of the team’s games her freshman year, but got the starting nod just 12 times last season after falling out of favor a bit with Coach Malouf. Melvin’s strength is to make explosive plays by driving to the net, but that strength has also been her downfall as more-and-more of her possessions have turned into turnovers. Melvin actually turned the ball over 16 less times last season, but in about 100 less minutes of action. Melvin still has a chance to make an impact in what is becoming a crowded backcourt, but she will need to turn down the turnovers and make smarter plays when she gets possession of the ball. Furthermore, she was just 3-of-21 from long range and saw a drastic drop in steals. Melvin should be better in her third year, but she will need to improve in several areas to get back her starting job.

Katie Dovey – Junior forward

A rebounding specialist, Dovey is going to be a player to watch in 2008-09. She has seen a slight increase in her minutes over her first two seasons at KU and, with the departures of forwards Mercedes Van Wagner, Molly Brown, Claire Sitarz, and Lisi Reyna, will be expected to contribute in an even larger role in the front court this season. She plays an aggressive game and is one of those players that you can tell is giving you 110% on every possession. Her 3.3 rebounds per game might not seem like much, but it was fourth best on the team last season.

Chauntelle Schroeder – Junior Center

With Van Wagner, Brown, and Sitarz out of the picture, the only remaining center from last season’s roster is the one they call “Canada”. Schroeder will be pressed hard by freshman Hannah Mertz for playing time, but the junior’s experience should give her the leg up on the starting job. That said, coach Malouf loves to start freshmen and that could be bad news for Schroeder. The junior proved she can make an impact last season when she was arguably the team’s best player on a per-minute basis. In 83 minutes of action, Schroeder scored an impressive 47 points, hauled in 30 rebounds, and shot 50% from the floor. In one game (against PSAC East powerhouse Millersville) she scored 13 points in just eight minutes of work. Where she loses favor with Malouf is in the turnover and personal foul department. Is she erratic? Yes. But, does she get the job done in the lane? Absolutely. Think Trish Dudeck, but bigger. The starting center job should be Schroeder’s to lose.

Meredith Starr – Sophomore Point Guard

I’ll admit I was a bit hard on Starr last season, but darn it, I wanted her to score on every possession so I could dig into my arsenal of “Starr” jokes. Anyways, the sophomore point guard appeared in all 27 of KU’s games, starting 22, which might seem like a ton, especially for a point guard, but that is nothing new for a Janet Malouf team. Starr played just over 25 minutes a game in her rookie season, second on the team to only Van Wagner. She proved last season that she is best utilized as a pass-first point guard. She shot just 25% from the field, but managed to dish out 69 assists. Her 60 turnovers and 43 personal fouls were a bit high and something she will improve on with experience. It is expected that Starr will see plenty of playing time at point guard in her sophomore season.

Melissa McQuade – Sophomore Forward

Someone please explain to me how McQuade [Pictured] was not the PSAC East Rookie of the Year last season? I don’t get it. Compared to the winner, West Chester’s Megan Stewart, McQuade played over 100 more minutes, scored 80 more points, hauled in over 100 more rebounds, had a better shooting percentage, hit more three pointers, and led her team in scoring. Stewart beat her in steals and assists. Big deal. Okay, now that you’re convinced McQuade is the best second year player in the PSAC East, I can begin.
McQuade will enter her sophomore season as the starting power forward and is the favorite to lead the team in both scoring and rebounding. She shot just over 40% in her rookie year, averaging 9.9 PPG, a number that is expected to improve in 2008-09. Think you can stop her inside game? No big deal. McQuade hit 32 three pointers last season and managed to shoot 34% from beyond the arc. The team plays better when the ball is in her hands and coach Malouf should be doing everything in her power to revolve the offense around her best player. McQuade has ‘First Team All-PSAC East’ written all over her and there’s no reason to expect anything less.

Newcomers this season:

Vanina Bonanno (Guard) – Vanina Bonanno. That’s fun to say. Brought in from New Jersey, Bonanno is a proven contributor (15 pts/5 rebs per game her senior season) and likely will see minutes in the backcourt this season. As put by Bergen County, New Jersey’s The Record on March 25th, 2007 following her junior year: “Bonanno is a sharpshooter who averaged 12 points per game and can score from the perimeter or drive to the basket.”

Linzie Stahl (Guard) – Stahl will work from the 2 and 3 position. She won several defensive awards during her high school career, but will need to work off some rust after missing a majority of her senior season with a torn ACL.

Cecily Scavicchio (Guard) – A high school shooting guard, Scavicchio impressed Coach Malouf earlier this fall and will be on the roster. [Pictured to the right - www.rizzoproduction.com]

Brittany LeVan (Forward) – A 1,000-point scoring center in high school, LeVan will spend her college career playing the 3 and 4 spot. Plus, I’m a fan of anyone who names her pets Diamond, Strawberry, and Champagne.

Brittany Greaves (Forward/Center) – There is playing time to be had in the front court. Greaves can shoot the ball from the perimeter and has experience playing the three position, but will play four or five for the Golden Bears.

Hannah Mertz (Center) – Another Jersey girl, Mertz played both the four and five position in high school and will be expected to make a contribution to the KU frontcourt as a freshman. At 6’1”, she will battle Schroeder for the starting center job this fall.

Subtractions:

Center Mercedes Van Wagner (Graduation)
Guard/Forward Rachel Weidensaul (Graduation)
Center Molly Brown (Graduation)
Center Claire Sitarz (Personal)
Forward Lisi Reyna (Personal)
Guard Britt Percich (transfer – DIII York College)


More and more and more to come…

2008-09 Women's Basketball Roster

Roster (Updated: 1/22/2009)
2008-09 Women’s Basketball team

# - Position – Name (Class)
*3- G - Meredith Starr (So)
*11- G - Rachel Wisemiller (Jr)
13 - F - Brittany Greaves (Fr)
21 - C - Hannah Mertz (Fr)
*23- G/F - Melissa McQuade (So)
25 - F - Brittany LeVan (Fr)
32- F - Katie Dovey (Jr)
*33 - C - Chauntelle Schroder (Jr)
*41 - G - Vivian Melvin (Jr)

*Current Starter

Inactive list:
5 - G - Lara Dellegrotti (Sr) - Day-to-day (Concussion)
14 - G - Linzie Stahl (Fr) - Off team - Expected to transfer
15 - G - Vanina Bonanno (Fr) - Suspended for 2008-09 season
43 - G - Cecily Scavicchio (Fr) - Off team - Expected to transfer

A look ahead: 2009 Baseball

What I’ve posted here is a look ahead to the 2009 baseball season. You’ll see a projected starting lineup and pitching rotation, as well as, a look at the returning bench and the incoming freshmen. Each returning player will include a brief capsule and/or analysis and 2009 projections. Keep in mind, I have at my disposal a limited amount of statistics and a relatively small sample size to use in making projections. I also cannot predict player progression, so it’s likely that some of last year’s freshmen will improve this offseason. With that said, all projections are based solely on each player’s KU career through 2008.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B – Jared Frey – Jr – Frey will return as the team’s everyday firstbaseman and will look to improve on an inconsistent season that ended with a .246 batting average. The junior managed just a .662 OPS, which is not acceptable, since he will likely hit in the top half of the Kutztown order. His struggles in 2007 can be blamed on a .271 BABIP, which was well below the .344 PSAC average. Frey is not much of a power threat, having yet to homer in 184 collegiate at-bats.

What to expect: Frey will likely get about 150 at-bats in 2008. Expect a dramatic increase in batting average to somewhere around .290 since his BABIP is unlikely to remain so low. A better OPS will come with the improved batting average and I expect that to be in the .741 range. (Projection: .288/.356/.385)

2B – Mike Kacelowicz – Jr – Kacelowicz began 2008 at shortstop, but returned to his 2007 secondbase position midway through the season and will likely return there next year. In his second season with KU, Kacelowicz led off most of the team’s games, hit .305, and managed an average .391 on base percentage.

What to expect: Kacelowicz is likely to return to the tablesetting role in 2009. His career .339 BABIP and .302 batting average have stayed consistent and are right near the league averages, which means his numbers from 2008 are likely to repeat next year. His improved K/BB ratio indicates he will only be on base more in 2009. (Projection: .303/.409/.424)

SS – Mark Renda – So – Renda finished up his rookie campaign getting a majority of the starting time at shortstop and is a strong candidate to get the starting nod in 2009. He stole a team-high 17 bases last year and will be relied on to do the same in his sophomore season.

What to expect: His .279 BABIP indicates he was extremely unlucky at the plate and so an improved batting average is a sure bet. (Projection: .313/.388/.370)

3B – James Quigley – So – Quigley missed the early portion of his freshman season due to an injury, but contributed as the cleanup hitter immediately upon his arrival. Despite missing several games, he still managed 140 plate appearances, recording a .345 average and an impressive .930 OPS. He managed just one homer, but showed gap power with 14 doubles. Quigley will likely see a majority of his playing time at third, but likely will see plenty of at-bats as the DH.

What to expect: As good as Quigley played, his numbers were heavily inflated by a .408 BABIP, which is all but unsustainable. He is likely to improve with one year of experience under his belt, but expect to see some statistical regression once his BABIP decreases closer to the .344 PSAC average. (Projection: .306/.410/.449)

LF – Chad Lightcap – Sr – [Pictured] Lightcap will enter his senior season as one of the top hitters in the PSAC. He is fresh off a six homerun season in which he hit .366 and notched an ridiculous 1.050 OPS. He also stole seven bases and was responsible for creating a team-best 48 runs. Lightcap saw a dramatic drop in BABIP from his sophomore to junior campaign (.433-to-.387), but only saw a 10 point drop in batting average and actually raised his OPS. The most striking improvement in Lightcap’s 2008 game was a much better strikeout/walk ratio. Following a combined 47 strikeouts to 31 walks during his first two years, Lightcap struck out just 22 times and drew 27 walks in 2008. Lightcap will continue his role as a left fielder and designated player in 2009. It is unclear whether he will hit leadoff (as he did much of the 2008 playoffs) or if he will return to his spot in the heart of the order.

What to expect: There is no doubting Lightcap’s ability with the bat and his statistical consistency the last three seasons leads me to believe that his 2009 numbers will mirror his career averages. His .394 career BABIP in 532 at-bats suggests he will continue to blow away the league average, but he is more likely to see at least a slight decrease once again during his senior season. (Projection: .345/.442/.545)

CF – Corey Buletza – So – This is mostly me speculating, but Buletza’s speed and ability to play all three outfield positions seems to make him a strong candidate to see a majority of the starts in center in 2009. Buletza stole 15 bases in his rookie season and managed a .284 batting average. He didn’t show much power, but has the speed to pull a triple out of the bag at any time. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a shot to lead off in front of Kacelowicz and Lightcap.

What to expect: His BABIP was right around league average so his .284 average isn’t likely to change. He did strikeout 28 times, while managing to draw just 13 walks. An improvement in that department would lead to a better on base percentage, which could lead to more steal opportunities, and inevitably more runs. (Projection: .286/.342/.360)

RF – Jeff Kistle – So – Kistle was one of the few Golden Bears whose numbers were lower than his play may have indicated thanks in part to a very low .284 BABIP. In his freshman campaign, he proved to be a free swinger, with most of his at-bats ending with either a double or a strikeout. His 31 strikeouts were most among returning players and 42-percent (10-of-24) of his hits went for two bases. Kistle will likely return to his role as the starting rightfielder.

What to expect: Kistle’s BABIP can only improve, which means his numbers should be much better across the board. If Kistle can also straighten out his K/BB ratio, he could see the biggest improvement in the statbook of anyone on the roster. (Projection: .258/.333/.374)

CA – Matt Kulbacki – Jr – Kulbacki will likely see even more of the catching workload next season due to the departure of 2008 backup Scott Kacelowicz. Kulbacki was one of the team’s main power threats last year, knocking in 32 runs and smoking seven homers. He will be a strong candidate to hit fourth or fifth in the lineup. Kulbacki is an excellent example of how BABIP can distort a player’s statistics. His .419 BABIP in 2007, which to no one’s surprise produced a .366 batting average, was clearly unsustainable and it saw a huge drop last year. Kulbacki went from extremely lucky in 2007 to almost the polar opposite in 2008, suffering through a .267 BABIP, which landed him a .276 batting average. If you average his first two seasons together, you get a better indicator of what he can do with the bat.

What to expect: Barring another crazy BABIP fluctuation, Kulbacki will likely hit around .320 and should be near the team leaders in homers and slugging. As long as he isn’t worn down from a bigger catching load, Kulbacki should improve on his sophomore year production. (Projection: .326/.424/.478)

Returning to the Bench:

1B – Andy May – So – Will see some time at first. (Projection: .317/.423/.428)

2B/SS – Brett Wigder – So – Should see a significant amount of playing time in the middle infield. (Projection: .294/.428/.305)

1B/3B – Mike Dugan – So – Will see playing time at the corners and at designated player. (Projection: .277/.385/.374)

CA – Dom Fantanarosa – Sr – The only returning catcher besides Kulbacki will battle for time with freshman Knee. (Projection: .302/.387/.395)

OF – Nole Saylor – So – Will see plenty of starts in the outfield. (Projection: .289/.375/.397) *UPDATE: Saylor will not be back for the 2009 season. (8/20/09)*

Projected Starting Pitchers:

[FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) is part of what I use to analyze each of the pitcher’s statistics. Unfortunately, FIP isn’t a perfect indicator of relief pitchers and so the projections could suffer for guys moving from the bullpen to the rotation. I’ll do my best to address this issue in all projections.]

LHP – Darin Gorski – Jr – [Pictured] Although Phil Rummel was the veteran of the group, the case could be made that Gorski was the team’s ace in 2008. With Rummel now in the Houston Astros organization, there is no doubt that Gorski is coach Blum’s number one option on the hill. In two seasons at KU, Gorski sports a combined 12-4 record and a 2.50 ERA.

What to expect: Experts say that BABIP is an uncontrollable stat for pitchers, but Kutztown pitching has been well below the PSAC average for years (a good thing). Gorski is one of the main culprits of this, managing a career .264 BABIP (compared to the PSAC average .337 and team average of .308). In my research, it appears that, at the Division II level, great pitchers can keep their opponents BABIP lower than the league average and thus can manage numbers that would be Cy Young material at the major league level. With all that said, I expect Gorski’s BABIP and 69% LOB% to regress at least slightly in 2009. His K/9 and GB/FB ratios were better in his sophomore season, which are both signs of good things to come. (Projection: 3.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.7 K/9)

RHP – Mike Bucklin – Jr – Bucklin enters the 2009 season with a chance to become a regular in the KU rotation. In his sophomore season, Bucklin saw a dramatic dip from 9.8 to 5.2 in the K/9 department, which could be worrisome. With that said, he did cut down his flyballs dramatically, which is certainly a good thing. Maintaining his career 7.2 K/9, along with a an improvement to his career 1.49 WHIP will be important if Bucklin hopes to succeed in the rotation.

What to expect: Assuming his K rate hangs in there at his career average and he continues to get ground balls, Bucklin should be effective. A better walk rate would do wonders for his numbers. (Projection: 4.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

RHP - Trent Mertz – So – Mertz will enter his sophomore season fresh off a season in which he managed a team-best 1.80 ERA out of the bullpen. He could be called on to start in 2009 and will be looking to improve is K/rate. Mertz was a bit lucky, sporting a .282 BABIP and a LOB% of 76%.

What to expect: Assuming his LOB% and BABIP regress at least slightly, Mertz will see a spike in ERA in 2009. Based on the numbers from his rookie year, I still expect him to be effective, but more strikeouts couldn’t hurt. (Projection: 2.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

RHP – Jason Herr – So – Herr worked primarily out of the bullpen in his freshman campaign, but could compete for a job in the starting rotation in 2009. His 3.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP were assisted by a low .255 BABIP and a ridiculously low 56% LOB%. With that said, he did manage a good 7.9 K/9 and drew a decent amount of ground balls.

What to expect: Like the other sophomores-to-be, I expect Herr to improve across the board in his second season. (Projection: 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.9 K/9)

LHP – Ryan Cassidy – Jr – Cassidy was used as a reliever in his first two seasons, but could get a starting nod in 2009. The junior southpaw is a great example of how a fluctuating BABIP and LOB% can affect a pitcher’s statistics. In his rookie campaign, Cassidy sported an impressive 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. When you look deeper, you see a LOB% of 85% and just a .229 BABIP. Now, move forward a year to his second season in 2008. Cassidy’s ERA ballooned to .379 and his WHIP jumped to 1.42. So, he was worse last year, right? Not exactly. His LOB% took a dip to 69%, which is still a little high, and his BABIP skyrocketed to near the PSAC average at .329. Still, his K-rate was almost identical to that of his rookie season and he also drew more ground balls in his second season. His walk rate did go up slightly last season, but is that to blame for the ERA and WHIP increases? Not really. This is a case where luck seems to be the culprit.

What to expect: Now with 46 career innings of record, Cassidy’s numbers are evening out. He appears to have a lot of potential with a team-best 2:1 GO:FO rate last year and an average of just over 7 K/9. (Projection: 3.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

Returning to the pitching staff:

RHP - Anthony Fegely – So – Needs to work out control issues after 11.6 BB/9 and 2 HBP in 9.1 innings last year. (Projection: 4.89 ERA, 2.16 WHIP*, 8.7 K/9) *2.16 WHIP should drop dramatically if he corrects walk problem.

LHP - Jordan Smith – So – If Cassidy starts, Smith will be top returning lefty in the pen. (Projection: 4.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.5 K/9)

RHP - Steve Craig – Sr - Struggled in six starts last season, but is the only senior pitcher on the roster. Career 6.87 ERA and 2.06 WHIP are no fluke and very indicative of control issues. (Projection: 6.08 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 7.0 K/9)

RHP – Kevin Morganti – Jr - Hasn’t pitched since 2006 due to injury and was less than impressive before going down. (Projection: 4.73 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 4.2 K/9)

RHP - Mike Moran – So – Was effective in just under 17 innings of relief work in his first season. (Projection: 3.71 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.2 K/9)

Incoming freshmen:

Shayne Houck (IF) – [Pictured – www.baseball.legion.org] Was a standout pitcher and corner infielder at Boyertown.
Matt Frei (OF/RHP) – Expected to see time on the hill and in the field if he can.
Johann Knee (UT) – 5’10” 175 pound righty can catch and play either corner infield spot. More Info
Cody Montz (IF) – All-state second baseman for Schuylkill Haven HS
Matt Patteson (RHP) – Righty was the ace at Cedar Crest HS
Jacob Shnee (RHP) – Pitcher at Pleasant Valley HS

Departures:

P - Phil Rummel (Senior)
P - Justin Jachowicz (Senior)
P/CF - Garrison Rausch (Senior)
P - Derick Reis (Senior)
C - Scott Kacelowicz (Transfer - Bloomsburg)
OF - Bryan Riggins (Senior)

Key:
OPS = OBP+SLG
LOB% = Left on base percentage
BABIP = Batting Avg. on Balls In Play
(.###,.###,.###) = (BA, OBP, SLG)

Special thanks to Josh Leiboff for providing me with the extra statistical information I requested.